By: Frehiwot Mulugeta
Table of Contents
As in most developing countries in Ethiopia agriculture is the dominant sector of the
economy. It contributes the lion share of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and foreign
currency earnings of the country from the sell of agricultural outputs abroad. According to
the 2008/09 the Ministry of Finance and Economy Development (MoFED) GDP forecast
the agricultural sector contributes 44.6%. Moreover, the sector creates employment
opportunity to the majority of the country‟s population and at present nearly 85 percent of
the country‟s population depends on agriculture to sustain their livelihood. Hence, as it has
been for centuries in the past, still being the leading sector at present, in the short run it is
believed to remain being the determinant sector to play a dominant role to bring about an
overall sustainable economic growth to the country.
However, the agricultural sector in Ethiopia remained at the vagaries of nature as its
performance depends on the timeliness, amount and distribution of rainfall that makes the
sector highly vulnerable to drought. To remove this problem the government took a form
stand to modernize the agricultural sector. It has envisaged placing the country among
middle income countries within two decades. To achieve this, the government has
introduced agricultural led industrialization development strategy. The development of
agriculture is set to be market oriented. This strategy is believed to increase production and
productivity. In the past years the strategy has shown real changes, the economy is grown
more than 10% a year, milliners and model farmers are emerging every year and the rural
farmers living condition is changing. To support the developing and modernizing agriculture
a modern marketing system is introduced. The market is operating on selected grains and
This report assesses grain and coffee output for Ethiopian‟s 2001/2002 main season
agricultural production emphasizing on the grains that are currently traded through Ethiopia
Commodity Exchange (ECX) i.e. maize, wheat, sesame, haricot bean and coffee. The report
addresses their production, supply, demand and price trends. It also further assesses world
grain and coffee production, supply, demand and price trends. Finally report tries to show
the likely implications of the world production and market with regard to commodity flow
to the ECX market.
1.1 Objective of the study
The objectives of this study are:
To show the state of grain and coffee production, supply and price trends in
To evaluate the global production, marketable surplus and price trend on the
above specified commodities,
To determine the likely implication with regard to commodity flow to the ECX
Secondary data sources are used in this study. The data sources from annual reports, of
Central Statistical Agency (CSA), Ministry of Agriculture and Rural development
(MoARD), and National Bank of Ethiopia(NBE). Furthermore, different international
agencies websites are used as sources of data.
The method of data analysis encompasses descriptive statistics such as tabulations,
percentage changes, means, graphs and pie charts.
1.3 Scope of the study
From the large varieties of grains, this study will focus on wheat, maize, haricot bean,
sesame and coffee. The analysis is intended to cover:-
Both domestic and world grains and coffee production, supply, market and price
Grain and coffee spatial distribution,
Impact of world grain and coffee production and market on ECX.
2. Domestic grain production, supply and price trends
Some parts of Ethiopia are known for its double year; in „Meher‟ and „Belg‟ seasons.
Meher is a long rainy season in which almost 80 to 90% of the private peasant farmers
perform their crop production activities. According to the 2007/08 CSA report on area and
production of belg season crops for private peasant holdings area cultivated under major
crops/grains/ was only 8.86 % while its volume of production accounts for only 4.58 %,
the remaining 95.52% was produced in the meher season. Cereals and pulses meher season
production covers 95.4 % of the annual production while almost all (99.9%) of oil seeds
come from meher season production.
2007/08 major crops production by season
Only 4.58% the annual production was produced during belg season which is insignificant
and CSA conducts belg season agricultural survey only in 2007/08 due to this reason our
report will only concentrate on meher season production.
The 2008/09 CSA large and medium scale commercial farms sample survey report on area
and production of crops indicates that a total of 342.11 thousand ha area was cultivated by
Commercial farmers from which 5.2 million qt of grain was produced. The total area
cultivated by private peasant holdings and commercial farmers during the specified period
was 11,552.6 thousand ha and 176.4 million qt of grains was produced. Commercial
farmers‟ contribution to the total area and production of grains accounts for only 3%. Of
the total production 14.8% of oil seeds, 2.6% of cereals and 0.8% of pulses was produced
by Commercial farmers See Annex 1.
Trend in grain production and yield by crop type
The 2009/10 (2002 E.C) private peasants holding meher season crop production forecast
survey indicate that a total land area of about 11,252 thousand hectares are covered with
grain crops i.e. cereals, pulses and oilseeds from which about 177,114 thousand quintals of
grains are expected to be produced from private peasant holdings. The total area cultivated
for grain and production is forecasted to increase by 0.4% and 3.5% respectively from its
From 2004/05 to 2009/10 the domestic grain production and cultivated area for grain shows
an increasing trend with annual average growth rate of 8.3% and 2.8% respectively/see
Table 2.1: Private peasants holding meher season Area cultivated for grain and its production
Source: - Source: Computed based on CSA Annual Agricultural Sample Survey reports
Out of the 2009/10 private holdings total cultivated cropland area and expected volume of
production 9.18 million hectares are accounted for cereals (81.58%) from which about
154.37 million quintals (87.16%) are expected to be produced. Currently pulses are planted
on about 1.33 million hectares of land (11.80%) from which about 16.42 million quintals
(9.27%) are expected to be produced. Like wise oilseeds are grown on land area estimated
at 745 thousand hectares (6.62%) from which about 6.33 million quintals (3.57%) are
expected to be produced in 2009/10 cropping season.
According to the 2009/10 (2002) crop production forecast survey report; even though the
rain fall was not adequate both the estimated cropped land area and expected volume of
production of grain has increased by 2.71% and 10.42% over the 2007/08 and by 0.37%
and 3.47% over the 2008/09 post harvest estimates respectively.
Except for pulses the expected crop productivity is anticipated to be better particularly for
cereals when it is compared with its previous years i.e. 2007/08 and 2008/09 post harvest
Cereals are the major food crops both in terms of the area they are planted to and volume
of production. They are produced in larger volume compared with other crops because they
are the principal staple crops. Cereals are grown in all regions with varying quantity.
Domestic cereal production has an increasing trend, with annual average growth rate of
3.6%. In 2009/10 it was expected to increase by 6.1% from 2008/09 to 154,372 thousand
quintals similarly the area harvested for cereal has increase by 4.5% see Annex 2.
The productivity of cereals has also an increasing pattern from 13.13 in 2004/05 to 15.37
ha/qt in 2009/10.
Cereals Production '000 in Quintals
Out of the total area harvested for cereals teff, maize, wheat and sorghum took up 22.9%,
16.0%, 15.5% and 12.9% of the grain crop area, respectively. As to production, teff,
maize, wheat and sorghum made up 18.0%, 21.7%, 18.3% and 14.1% respectively.
Cultivated Area and Production:
The 2009/10 meher season crop production forecast report shows that area harvested for
wheat increased by 20.1% while its production is expected to increase by 27.8% from its
previous year despite the unfavorable weather condition. During 2004/05 -2009/10 areas
harvested for wheat and its production shows an increasing trend except for the year
The national yield of wheat is estimated to increase to 18.58 qt/hr in 2009/10 by 6.4%
from 2008/09. /See Annex 3/ Depending on the climate and soil conditions the potential
yield varies from region to region which ranges from 15.03 to 21.63 qt/ha; the highest
yield in SNNPR region.
By increasing the production and productivity of wheat it is possible to save the foreign
currency needed to import large quantity of wheat.
Area Cultivated for wheat in '000 hr
Wheat Production in '000 qt
Cultivated area: -
According to 2009/10 crop production forecast report cultivated area for maize
increased by 1.7% from the previous year; similarly it has an increasing pattern
during the period 2004/05 to 2009/10 see Annex 4.
Production and Productivity:
The 2009/10 maize production and productivity is expected to decrease by 2.2%
and 3.8% respectively. /See Annex 4/This is due to unfavorable weather condition
i.e. delay of rain fall /Source MOADR/
Area Cultivated for Maize in '000 hr
Maize Production in '000 qt
1,695 1,767 1,768 1,799
37,764 37,497 39,325 38,477
Small scale farmers in Ethiopia grow various crops for own consumption and
economic benefits. Pulses are among the crops produced in all the regions of the
country after cereals.
According to the Ethiopian Pulses, Oilseeds and Spices, Exporters Association, the
country secured 466 million USD from the export of oilseeds and pulses in 2008/2009
fiscal year, it has shown an over 20% increase compared to the 2007/2008 fiscal year.
Production and Productivity
At national level, pulses production and productivity starts to show a positive
trend in 2006/07 and continues till 2008/09.
In 2009/10 pulses production is expected to be 16,417 thousand qt, it
decreases by 19.7% from 2008/09 and similarly the land cultivated for pulses
has also decreased by 19.4%. /See Annex 5/
The reason for the decrease in production of pulse:
- Unfavorable weather condition,
In 2008/09 the international price of pulse has fallen due to this reason the
area cultivated for pulses has decreased especially around rift valleys.
Pulses Production in Quintals
Area cultivated for haricot bean has an increasing pattern from 2006/07 to 2008/09
however it sharply goes down by 22.2% in the 2009/10 crop year from the previous
Similarly production and productivity of haricot bean is expected to decrease by -
45.3% and 29.7% respectively. This is mainly due to the unfavorable weather
condition./See Annex 6/
Cultivated area for haricot bean
Haricot bean Production in '000 qt
in '000 hr
Oilseeds are crops grown to flavor the food consumed at home and earn some cash
for peasant holders in the country. The NBE 2007/08 Annual Report declares that out of
the total export earning, oilseeds contribute about 15%.
Oil seed production shows an increasing trend for the past three years (2006/07 -
2008/09) but the 2009/10 forecast shows that it is expected to decrease by 3.7% from its
previous year. Similarly the harvested area decreased by 14.8%. However its
productivity is expected to increase by 10.8%. /See Annex 7/
Oilseeds Production '000 in Quintals
According to 2009/10 crop production forecast report, cultivated area had increased
by 7.9% from the previous year;
Sesame production and productivity is expected to increase by 15.0% and 6.6%
respectively from its previous year. /See Annex 8/
The lion share of the oilseed export earning came from sesame; in 2007/08 its share
Cultivated Area for sesame in '000 hr
Sesame Production in '000 qt
Grain Production by Regions
The country‟s grain production in 2009/10 is forecasted to increase by 9.9% and 3.5 % as
compared to 2007/08 and 2008/09 respectively. /See Annex 9/ Region wise, it shows an
increasing trend in the Oromia, Amhara and SNNPR regions on the contrary Tigray,
Somali and Benshangul Gumuze regions have declining pattern (excluding regions with a
production estimate less than 500,000 qt).
Regional Grain Production in '000 qt
Cereal production is expected to increase by 6.5% from that of 2008/09. Cereals are
found to be the most commonly grown crop across the regions. In 2009/10 crop year,
Oromia region is the highest both in cropland area and expected volume of production of
cereals followed by Amhara and SNNPR regions. In 2009/10 the expected volume of
production has an increasing trend in all regions.
The National level wheat production is expected to increase by 40.1% and 27.8% from
2007/08 and 2008/09 respectively. At regional level, all regions‟ production show an
increasing pattern compared to last year same period. On the other hand, the current year
total production of Maize is expected to decline by 2.16% from the preceding year. All
regions production except Amhara follows a declining pattern.
The country‟s major pulse producer regions are Amhara, Oromia, SNNPR and Tigray.
The 2009/10 pulses production forecast have a decreasing pattern in all regions. Haricot
bean total production is expected to decrease by 27.24% and 45.27% from 2007/08 and
2008/09 respectively. Similarly, all regions production is expected to fall.
Amhara, Oromia and Tigray regions are the leading regions in producing oilseeds in the
country. The 2009/10 expected volume of oil seed production increased only in Amhara
region by 20.7%. The 2009/10 country level sesame production is expected to increase by
14.99%. Sesame production of all regions is expected to decrease from its previous year
except for Amhara region.
Trends in marketable surplus by crop types
The 2007/08 (2000E.C) CSA Annual Agricultural sample survey special report on crop
utilization has been used to calculate the marketable surplus of crops in 2009/10.
In Ethiopia nearly 65% of cereals produced were used for household consumption; nearly
17% and 14% were used for sale & seed respectively and the remaining 4% of cereals was
used for other purposes like wage, animal feed, etc. When the crop utilization is
considered by crop type, between 51 to 75% of crops in cereal group were used for own
consumption and between 10 to 29% of the crops were used for sale.
About 59% of pulses used for household consumption, 23% for sale, 14% for seed and the
remaining 3% of pulses were used for other purposes. The pattern of oilseed utilization is
different from that of cereals and pulses. According to the crop utilization report 31%,
54% and 12% of oilseeds were used for household consumption, sale and seed
respectively. We can summarize that more of the oilseeds produced are used for sale.
The basic assumptions made in order to forecast the 2009/10 production and marketable
1. The 2008/09 commercial farmers‟ production proportion to the total
production remains the same.
2. The 2007/08 crop utilization ration also holds for 2009/10 fiscal year.
Table 2.2: Private Peasant holdings and Commercial Farmers Production Forecast 2009/10 (in „000 qt)
share to the total
Source: Computed based on CSA Private Peasant holdings and Commercial farmers Agricultural Sample Survey
Table 2.3: The 2009/10 Marketable Surplus of Major Crops
Source: Computed based on CSA Agricultural Sample Surveys
As can be seen from table 2.3, in 2009/10 the supply of cereals is expected to increase by
6% to 24.7 million quintals from previous year. The supply of wheat is also expected to
increase by 28% but the supply of maize is expected to fall by 2%. One of the likely
reasons for the decrease in the supply of maize is the fall in its production and productivity
and similarly the household consumption of grain is expected to increase slightly.
Marketable surplus of pulses is expected to fall by 16% as a result of the decrease in its
production (all crops under pulse category except horse bean production is expected to
fall). Similarly haricot bean‟s surplus is expected to decrease by 45% due to the decline in
production and productivity.
Oilseed supply is expected to fall by 4%, this is because of the decrease in the production
of all oilseed families (like nigerseed, linseed etc) other than sesame. The supply of sesame
is expected to increase by 15%.
2.4 Trend in Grain flows to the Mesalemia Market
In 2008/09 the supply trend for maize generally shows an increasing pattern but that of
wheat did not exhibits a consistent pattern. The average supply of wheat and maize to the
Mesalemia market was 1,449 qt and 4,736 qt respectively /January 2008 to January 2010/
respectively. The supply rates of wheat are less volatile than that of maize. Supply of wheat
keep decreasing from January 09 to May 09 and it increases in June 2009 and continue to
decline till December 2009 and again increased to in January 2010. On the other hand
maize supply to Mesalemia market does not follow a regular pattern /increasing and
The supply of wheat showed a declining trend in second quarter as compared to first
quarter of this fiscal year. The supply of wheat dropped from 1,550 quintals in July to
1,279 quintals in September, increasing afterward but the second quarter average supply
decreased by 4.2% as compared to first quarter. Unlike wheat, the supply trend for maize
crop reflects improvement for months and reached at peak to Birr 6,029 in December 2009.
Hence the average supply in the second quarter increased by 8.8% as compared to first
The supply trend for both crops in the first six months of this fiscal year shows an
increasing trend compared to last year‟s same period where the average supply of Wheat
and Maize increased by 4.4% and 22.9% respectively.
Monthly Average Supply to Messalemia Market
Source: Market Surveillance
The Domestic Market " Mesalmia" price trend of Wheat and Maize over the last twenty
months were used to analyze the national domestic price of wheat and maize. Generally
the price trend of both crops for this fiscal year (2009/10) exhibits a declining trend as
compared to last year same period.
Monthly Average Price of wheat and maize to Messalemia Market
700 600 500 400 300 200 100
Source: Market Surveillance
As shown in the graph above average monthly price of wheat reached a peak of 642
birr/qt and minimum of 461 birr/qt. The average price is less volatile with coefficient of
variation of 8. In the first quarter of 2008/09 the average monthly price of wheat reaches
its peak price Birr 642 per qt.; the price shows a declining over the second and third
quarters and again increasing trend in the fourth quarter of the year. In the first quarter of
2009/10 the average price is 589 birr/qt a 5% less than the preceding year. Likewise, in
the second quarter the average price further goes down to 562 birr/qt; which is less by 5%
from the previous quarter and 4% from last year‟s same period.
As we can see from the above graph, the average monthly price of maize is more volatile,
with coefficient of variation of 27. In first quarter of 2008/09 maize price reaches its
maximum of 595 birr/qt. Then after the price continued to decline till the end of the year.
The decline continued to the next year and reached 339 birr/qt was down by 43% in the
first quarter of 2009/10 from last year‟s same period. It goes further down in the second
quarter of 2009/10 and reached 301 birr/qt. This is a decline of 11% from the previous
quarter and 24% from last year‟s same period.
Table 2.4: Coefficient of variation
Coefficient of variation
The price trend of both crops in the first and second quarter of 2009/10 shows a
declining trend as compared to last year same period (2008/09).
2.5.2 Regional levels
The retailer‟s price of wheat and maize was collected from 11 selected market places of
the country. During July to October 2009 the average retailer price of wheat and maize
has decreases in all selected market places the decline ranges from 1 to 43 % than its
previous year same period.
Table 2.5 indicates that the lowest price of Birr 389.00 was observed for wheat in
Debremarkos and the highest of Birr 785.00 was recorded for Harrar during the first six
months of current fiscal year. Similarly, during the same period of previous year, the
highest and lowest prices (Birr 891 and Birr 643) were recorded at Kobo and
Debremarkos markets respectively. The average wheat price trend for the first four
months of 2008/09 was Birr 763, while the average price for this fiscal year was Birr
607 indicating a decline of 25.6 %.
With regard to maize, the lowest price was recorded at Mota and Yergachefe, which
was birr 351 per qt; while the highest price (Birr 525.00 per qt) was registered for
Diredawa. Average price of maize during the first four months of the fiscal year was
Birr 425 per qt. while the average price for the corresponding months of the previous
year was Birr 635 per qt. This suggests that maize price dropped by 50% during the
first half of this fiscal year as compared to the preceding year.
Table 2.5: Average Retail Price of wheat and maize in selected areas of the country (Birr/qt)
Price of Wheat
Price of Maize
2.6 Coffee Production and Supply in 2009/10
Coffee is the most important agricultural commodity in the world. Many countries,
including Ethiopia, grow coffee, which is exported as the raw or roasted to the world.
The agriculture-based Ethiopian economy is highly dependent on coffee arabica
contributes more than 36 percent of the country's foreign exchange earnings (NBE
2007/08 Annual report).
According to MoARD export statistics, in 2008/09 375.8 million USD was eared from
the coffee export. This export earning falls by 28 percent than its preceding year.
Table 2.6: Domestic Coffee Production (2004/05-2009/10)
Production in '000
Source: CSA Agricultural Sample Surveys and MoARD
The data from 2004/05 to 2008/09 was taken from CSA annual agricultural sample survey
reports and the 2009/10 coffee production was taken from MoARD unpublished document.
The area covered by coffee and its production shows an increasing trend from 2005/06
to 2007/08 whereas it goes down in 2008/09 by 3.9% and 4.8 % respectively. In 2009/10
about 4.8 million quintals of coffee is expected to be produced, it is 84.7% higher than
the previous year. This fiscal year coffee production forecast is higher than the past ten
years output; the main reason for this achievement is the favorable weather condition
specially rain distribution and the success on coffee preparation process.
2.7 Trading activity in the ECX market
In the last six months /from July 08, 2009 to January 8, 2010/ the performance of grain
trading in the ECX market was presented as follows:
800 quintals of Humera sesame of value 1,355 thousand Birr were traded. 50 quintals of white maize with a total value of 16.7 thousand birr was traded. Wheat and haricot bean has not been transacted in the ECX market.
A total of 3,551 thousand feresula (603 thousand quintals) of all types of coffee were
traded showing a daily average traded volume of 27.5 thousand feresula. Of the total
volume stated above, unwashed coffee constituted 51%, while washed (commercial),
specialty and local coffee accounted for 21.9%, 8.2% and 18.9% respectively. In value
terms during the specified period a total of 1,828.5 million Birr was earner from coffee
Table 2.7: Volume and value of coffee traded in the ECX market over the last six months
Volume in feresula
Percentage share Value in Million Birr
Source: Market Surveillance
The six months‟ average price of unwashed coffee was 523 birr per feresula. It exhibited
a decline of 8.1% in the second quarter compared to the first quarter. The average price of
washed coffee was Birr 546 per feresula also fall by 2.6% as compared to the first quarter
All coffee types categorized under washed and unwashed coffee exhibited a decline in
price in the second quarter compared to the first quarter. The primary reason for the
decline in prices is that traders were left free for certain period to negotiate and set the
new price level without putting price limits for the new crop of 2009, and accordingly
buyers tried to reverse the increasing trends observed in the old crop season. /Source
Market Surveillance /.
The average price of specialty coffee in the period November 23, 2009 to January 08,
2010 was Birr 623 per feresula. It showed an increasing trend throughout the period for
all specialty coffee types. In terms of local coffee, except Sidama, all other coffee types
showed an increase in price in the second quarter of the year.
3. World Grain Supply and Demand
3.1. Supply and Demand
Supply-demand prospects differ across the various markets, as world wheat supply-
demand prospects are less positive than those of feed grains and especially oilseeds. In
addition to "traditional" supply-demand factors, grain markets will continue to be
influenced by currency exchange rates, energy-petroleum prices and world economy in
2010, says O‟Brien.
Supply-demand conditions for grains and oilseeds in 2010 are the result of grain market
trends that have been in place since 1998/99. From 1998/99 through 2006/07 marketing
years for wheat, corn and soybeans, world and U.S. grain supplies have either trended
toward or have stayed at lower, tighter stocks-to-use levels while grain prices also
remained at relatively low levels (compared to the higher prices achieved during the
2007-2009 period), he notes.
The supply of grains in 2005/06 was 1606 million tons. It has increased to 1697 million
tons in 2007/08. The corresponding consumption was 1619 million tons in 2005/06 and
1686 million tons in 2007/08. As shown in Table 3.1, a significant increase in wheat,
maize and barley, mostly in North America and the CIS, lift estimated world grains
production by 9 million tons, to 1,768 million in 2010, 25 million below last year‟s
record. Projected total consumption is 1,744 million tons in 2010, 1.3 per cent more than
last year. The International Grain Council forecasted the global industrial use of grain to
be 257 million tons, in 2010, unchanged from last year, including 136 million for ethanol.
World grain stocks at the end of 2009/10 are projected 24 million tons more than
previous year, at 385 million. Compared with last season, wheat stocks are expected to
rise but there will be a fall in the case of maize. World grains trade is forecast at 229
million, still below last year‟s record 248 million due to reduced wheat imports by Near
East Asia and North Africa.
Table 3.1: World production and Consumption (million tons)
Source: International Grain Council –Grain Market Report (Jan 21, 2010)
According to the international grain council, World wheat harvest areas in 2010 are forecast
at 221 million hectare 1% less than in 2009 similarly production is projected at 674 million
tons, some 12 million less than in 2009 but the third largest on record. The main reason for
the fall of wheat production is: some areas of CIS /Commonwealth of Independent States / have
been exposed to frost damage; winter wheat plantings in the US were exceptionally low, at
15 million hectare, due to the late harvesting of maize and soybeans; some of Canada‟s
farmers may switch from spring wheat to oilseeds or pulses and delayed planting in North
Africa. Forecast global consumption is 642 million, only 3 million more than in 2008/09.
Large purchases by Near East and Far East Asia raise forecast world wheat trade by 1 million
tons, to 119 million, compared with the record 136 million in 2008/09 (Table 3.1). US wheat
sales continue to make slow progress but Canada‟s are running ahead of last year. Export
forecasts for the EU, Ukraine and Kazakhstan are also increased.
Maize production forecast is 791 million, the same as in 2008. Forecast global maize
consumption is 24 million more than in 2008/09. World stocks are down by 11million to total
137 million tons at the end of 2009/10.
Overall, the anticipated decline in world cereal production is likely to be offset by a draw
down from stocks carried-over from the current season, and as such, supply is projected to be
sufficient to meet the expected demand. However, in the current economic environment,
there is much uncertainty, especially with regard to its effects on demand.
3.2. Price Trends
Trade in cereals, including maize and wheat, is expected to continue to grow. Future trade
growth will be associated with increasing production and consumption of food and feed
caused by a global population that will get larger, richer, and more urbanized. The
agricultural trade is also likely to get a boost from the policy side.
The process by which current uncertainties in grain supply and demand eventually become
market realities will drive world grain and oilseed market prices in calendar year 2010, says
Kansas State University Grain Economist Dan O‟Brien.
International markets are becoming increasingly segmented, with separate channels for
different grades and qualities, so producers who have the capacity to target specialized niche
markets are likely to enjoy a competitive advantage.
Table 3.2: Major Grain Price ($/bushel)
Source: Chicago Board of Trade
Table 3.2 Shows that the price trend for both wheat and maize increased and reached peak in
2008. The price declined in 2009 and settled well over the 2005 price level.
According to Daniel O‟Brien in previous year‟s world grain and oilseed markets appeared to
be comfortable with lower but "just in time" levels of supplies to meet demand needs.
Beginning in late 2006 to early 2007, a number of factors came together to cause grain prices
to move dramatically higher. Wheat stocks in the world and the U.S declined to 30 year and
60 year lows, respectively, in the 2007/08 marketing year. Rapid U.S. ethanol expansion
tightened U.S. corn supply-demand balances, leading to dramatic increases in U.S. corn
acreage and production in 2007. After giving acres over to corn in 2007, U.S. soybean
markets responded with higher prices and planted acres in 2008. Combined with record high
world oil prices and sharp declines in the value of the U.S. dollar, these market trends all
culminated with record high wheat, corn and soybean prices in early 2008.
Wheat prices have been declining in the past few months of 2009, an indication that the
world will see higher wheat production in 2010. Since peaking in March 2009, global wheat
export prices have dipped by 25 per cent (IGC). Wheat futures on the Chicago Board of
Trade (CBOT) have slumped more than 70 per cent since March 2009. Still, global grain
trade is seen falling, as increases in wheat and barley shipments are being more than offset by
falls in corn and sorghum (CBOT).
In addition to these supply-demand factors, grain markets affected by unforeseen geopolitical
and macroeconomic events in the coming year. If geopolitical conflict in the Middle East
were to occur, world petroleum prices would likely be affected, which would in turn affect
grain prices. Unanticipated changes in world financial markets with the risk of either
deflation or inflation of currencies and commodity prices would impact grain market prices.
Table 3.3: Wheat planting and harvesting season
Winter: - September - October
Spring: - March - April
Winter :- October and December
Winter :- September - October
Winter: - October - November
Winter: - August - October
Spring and durum:– May - June
August - October
Winter: - September - October
July - September
Winter: - May - July
October - December
Winter: - October
Winter :- October - December
Winter :- June - August
October - December
Different varieties of wheat are grown in the top wheat producing countries: mainly winter
wheat, spring wheat, and durum wheat. Both spring wheat and durum follow, generally, the
same life cycle. Both are planted around the first of May, with planting running through the
first of June. Both can be expected to begin heading around the first of July, with harvest
beginning in mid-August and running through the middle of October. Winter wheat planting
begins around September and completed by the end of December. Winter wheat harvest time
varies from one to the other country. For France, Russia, Canada, Germany and China
(spring) begin around the first of July and running through the first part of September (Table
Ethiopia‟s wheat planting and harvesting season differ from others, but has relatively the same
with Australia. In Australia, winter wheat planting begins around the first of May and runs
through the end of July and Ethiopia‟s begun around June and runs through the end of August.
Australia‟s and Ethiopia‟s wheat harvest usually beginning first of October and running
through the end of December (Table C). As Ethiopia‟s harvesting season is different from
major producers, it has a market advantage for selling wheat abroad.
Internatonal price of Wheat and Maize
Price of Wheat 2009
Price of Maize 2009
Price of Wheat 2008
Price of Maize 2008
Source: The Public Ledger
The above graph shows that, in the international grain market the average price of wheat had
shown a declining trend during the first quarter. The last six months average price of wheat
and maize has declined by 31% and 37% respectively from last year same period.
Average wheat price was Birr 209 in September but showed a rising trend during the second
quarter. In the same way, the average price of Maize increased in the second quarter
compared to the first quarter.
3.3. Freight Trends
Freight transport adds no value but more cost to the freight it carries. They have direct
influence on the cost of commodities and, as a result, the price of living. Freight price
depends on the form of the cargo, the mode of transport (truck, ship, and aircraft), the
weight of the cargo, and the distance to the delivery destination. Many shipping services,
especially air carriers, use dimensional weight for calculating the price, which takes into
account both weight and volume of the cargo.
Ocean Freight Rates follow the strengths and weaknesses of the economies of the countries
the carrier service. The rates fluctuate based on the market, the economy and the
geographical location of the port. Carriers are charging premiums for space on their vessels
and on the pier. The following are some of the fees and surcharges that might be in a
quotation from a forwarder or customs broker or ocean carrier:
Currency Adjustment Factor,
Bunker Adjustment Factor,
Origin and Destination Terminal Handling Charges,
Peak Season Surcharge
Automated Manifest Security Surcharge
Bill of Lading Issuance Fees,
Detention/Demurrage Fees, and
Others, as applicable.
The International Grains Council‟s Grain Freight Index (GFI) had risen to over 6,000 points
in early December 2009, compared to less than 3,000 a year earlier. Shipping heavy grains
from the U.S. Gulf to the E.U. and Japan in early December 2009 cost $37 per tone and $68
per tone, respectively. A year earlier, the totals were $17 per tone and $25 per tone. So, in
2009, the shipping sector looked in far better shape than it did a year earlier with freight
rates at least at profitable levels for most operators.
For the U.S., the comparison of the spread between the Gulf and PNW (Pacific North West)
as a barometer to guide on the direction that grain will flow, ten years ago shippers would
have an advantage with the spread exceeded $10 per tone to load out of the PNW for
shipments destined for Asia (Eriksen). However, in the current environment, when the full
accounting of transportation is considered, including the inland transport costs to the PNW,
the ocean freight spread that gives the PNW an advantage is closer to $25 per tone as the
cost of moving corn and soybeans by rail have increased considerably over the past decade.
This spike in Chinese demand for most bulk commodities was reflected in the smaller vessel
sizes used for international grain shipments. The Baltic Exchange Panamax Index, which
started 2009 at just 500 points, had reached nearly 4,500 in late November. The Supramax
Index jumped from 400 to over 2,400, while the handy size index climbed from under 300
to 1,100 in the same period.
Generally, the main factors that contribute to the growing needs of time sensitive freight
Globalization and international trade,
Trend towards outsourcing non-core activities including logistics,
Trend towards smaller more frequent shipment (time sensitive supply); just-
intime inventory; and direct-to customer business,
Dynamic factors including the pace and risk of obsolescence; speed-to-market and
consistent; satisfactory customer experiences and,
Information technology e.g. bar-coding; electronic data interchange (EDI); web
based ordering and tracking capabilities; automatic data capture; routing
management and inventory track-and-trace visibility etc. logistics include, Mayne
(2002) and UPS (2004).
Spot rates in the dry-cargo markets barely cover operating costs and make little or no
contribution to debt service. Therefore, analysts say, 2010 will be a very challenging year
for most shipping companies. If rates continue at their present levels, many owners will run
out of cash, and as the banks do not provide finance without large injections of new equity,
the companies will go bankrupt. What is transparently clear for shippers is that despite the
rise in freight rates during 2009, there remain a number of clouds on the horizon for owners
which could put downward pressure on the cost of moving goods by bulk carrier in 2010.
On the demand side, evidence of a full-blown global economic resurgence was still patchy
as 2010 approached and there was no guarantee that China‟s stimulus spending would
continue to provide the bulk shipping market with ballast. A tightening of credit or a change
in the government‟s industrial policy in the wake of December‟s "Copenhagen" meetings
could strike a demand blow to the iron ore and coal export industry. The Dubai financial
scare also gave warning that more economic surprises could still be in store. From these
most forecasters are predicting vessel values and rates will fall considerably during 2010
and remain bearish in 2011.
3.4. Likely impact on the domestic market
In a world that is becoming more populated, wealthier, and more urbanized, and one in
which economic activities are increasingly linked through commercial relationships, grain
production and consumption generally depend on national and international markets. The
role of markets vary from country to country depending on many factors, including the level
of general economic development, the quantity and quality of transportation and
communication infrastructure, the efficiency of marketing institutions, and the incentives
created by agricultural as well as non-agricultural policies.
Most grains are produced on small plots of land. The farming activity is labor intensive. The
supply is mostly short of demand compared to the high population of the country. The
existing commercial farms are also not satisfying flour and food item processing industries.
Because of this the domestic market grain price is high compared to the international
markets which are supplied by modern farm. The data from EGT, CBOT and Agra net,
which are discussed above shows the domestic market price for the major grain- wheat and
maize is higher than the international market price.
4. World Coffee Production, stock and Demand
The two main coffees species commercially cultivated are coffee „Arabica‟ and coffee
'Robusta'. Coffee arabica is considered more suitable for drinking than robusta coffee.
Robusta tends to be bitter and have less flavor but better body than arabica. For these
reasons, about three-quarters of coffee cultivated worldwide are coffee arabica. However,
Coffee robusta is less susceptible to disease than coffee arabica and can be cultivated in
environment where coffee arabica will not thrive. Robusta coffee also contains about 40–50
per cent more caffeine than arabica. For this reason, it is used as an inexpensive substitute
for arabica in many commercial coffee blends. According to ICO in 2008/09 of the total
coffee production 61% was Arabica coffee.
Global coffee supply is expected to be some 6-8 million 60-kg bags below demand in
2009/10, due in part to falling output in key producers, International Coffee Organization
chief Nestor Osorio. He added there seem to be a deficit; Inventories are very low and the
expectations of output for in Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia and Central America are lower. As
a result coffee is heading for a very firm market.
Osorio also indicated that 2009/10 will be an off-year in Brazil's biennial production cycle
and scarcity of quality washed arabicas in the world's number 3 producer- Colombia, due to
the impact of heavy rains and a programme to renew coffee trees. He also indicated that the
tightness of supply was particularly acute in Colombia where the authorities have
implemented a coffee tree renewal programme aimed at raising production to 17 million
bags in four or five years from around 11-11.5 million bags now. In the meantime, as there
is a clear scarcity of quality washed arabicas from Colombia, there will no coffee to replace
in the blends the coffee that Colombia and Central America cannot offer. It means a kind of
a squeeze in the market because some contracts and some deliveries of coffee could not be
Global Coffee Production and Consumption
Source: ICO (production), Agra net (consumption, trade and stock)
The above graph shows that coffee production fluctuates from year to year. Production
increased by 22 percent from 2004/05 to 2008/09 but declined by 3.6 percent from 2008.
According to ICO, in crop year 2009/10 coffee production is estimated at 123.6 million bags
compared to 128.2 million bags in 2008/09. This estimate is preliminary since additional
information, mainly from Colombia and Vietnam, is pending.
The export and stocks declined by 11.5 per cent and 5.8 per cent from 2004/05 to 2008/09
respectively. Coffee production and export fluctuates with a general increasing trend for
production and decline trend for export over the years considered. Where as domestic
consumption shows an increasing and stocks a decline trend from 2004/05 to 2008/09.
The ICO reported that from 2000 to 2008, annual world consumption rose at an average rate
of 2.4 per cent. The result in 2008 was mainly due to the increase in domestic consumption
in exporting countries, in particular, Brazil, Indonesia and Mexico. Consumption also
increased in Germany, Italy and UK, but a decrease has been observed in some importing
countries such as France, the Netherlands and the Russian Federation. Consumption
continues to be buoyant and is likely to remain a dominant factor in maintaining firm prices.
Since production is expected to be lower than consumption, stocks will have to continue to
be drawn down from already low levels. Coffee supplies are likely to remain tight in 2010 as
a result of low production and problems in the quality of coffee beans as a result of adverse
weather conditions during harvesting.
4.1. Coffee Production by major producers
As a commodity, coffee - from Coffee Beans grown in over 70 countries - is second only to
oil in dollar volume. Brazil remains by far the largest Coffee Beans producer. In 2009 Brazil
contributed an output of 41% to the world total. Vietnam in recent years has rapidly been
taking the second position with output of 14%. Colombia is a distant third 9%, Indonesia
produced about 8%, Ethiopia contributed more than 5% & it takes the sixth position, and
Mexico and India each contributed 4% to the world production (Table 4.1).
Table 4.1: Top ten coffee producers (000 bags)
2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09
Share of top ten (%)
Source: CBOT Note- amount is expressed in 60 kg bags.
The world's largest coffee producing region is likely to continue to be Latin America. The
world market is expected to be in its low production year of biennial production cycle, with
output significantly reduced in the Brazilian coffee and the Vietnamese crop will also be
In addition to Brazil and Vietnam, Colombia - one of the largest arabica coffee producer,
2009/2010 production is expected to fall considerably. As E. Mehmet, put it coating
Colombian coffee growers "the country could produce one of its smallest crop 35 years this
season, with some expecting production to fall by nearly 30% from last year to no time more
than 8 million bags in 2009".
The unusual cold weather in Mexico and Central America during peak coffee harvesting
season is expected to hamper quality and quantity of the output. As J. Gale, in the Public
Ledger predicted coating producers, the overall drop in 2009/2010 coffee harvest due to
aging trees and bad weather conditions could reach 33% to 3.45million 60kg bags. In
2008/09, Mexico produced 4.6 million bags. The bad weather is expected to affect El
Salvador and Costa Rica coffee harvesting. East African Fine Coffees Association/ EAFCA/
expects coffee production to rise in Ethiopia, Burundi and Tanzania in 2009/2010 crop year
but a fall in Kenya and Uganda.
4.2. Coffee Price Trend
The upward trend in coffee prices recorded in December 2009 continued during the first
fortnight of 2010, with the monthly average of the ICO composite indicator price in January
rising to 126.85 US cents per lb compared to 124.96 US cents per lb in December 2009,
representing a slight increase of 1.5%. This is the highest monthly average since August
2008 and represents an increase of 17% in relation to January 2009.
Table 4.2: ICO INDICATOR PRICES, ANNUAL AVERAGES: 1998 to 2009
Colombian Mild Arabicas
Other Mild Arabicas
Brazilian Natural Arabicas
Source: International Coffee Organization (http://www.ico.org/coffee_prices.asp)
Table 4.2 show that coffee price was decreased from the 1998 level, where it reached the
minimum in 2001 for ICO composite, Arabica and Robusta. The price increased slightly for
six years and jumped the 1998 level in 2008, where price reached a peak.
The increase was particularly marked in the case of Colombian Milds, widening the
differential with the average of the 2nd and 3rd positions on the New York futures market.
During the last few months, the differential between prices of Arabicas and Robustas has
widened significantly. However, prices fell slightly during the second half of January, partly
as a result of movements in the value of the US dollar, which generally appreciated against
the currencies of exporting countries, particularly the Brazilian real.
Coffee group indicator prices
Source: ICO report
The graph shows daily indicator prices for the four groups of coffee since 2 January 2009.
During the whole of calendar year 2009 Arabica prices were much firmer than those of
Robustas, which found it difficult to sustain a level of more than 70 US cents per lb,
widening the differential between the two types of coffee.
Supplies of Arabicas from South and Central America are facing both climatic and
structural difficulties, particularly with the recurrence of the coffee berry borer in Colombia.
Prospects for a return of Colombian production to its normal level following a poor
performance in 2008/09 are once more uncertain and the production in January was very
low. The possibility of substitution by other origins seems equally limited.
4.3. Prospects for the next one year
Preliminary estimates for crop year 2009/2010 indicate that total production will be between
123 and 125 million bags. Production in Africa, Mexico and Central America will increase
slightly. But production will fall in Brazil, Colombia and Central America during crop year
In 2010, global coffee net-export is projected to reach 5.5 million tones (92 million bags).
Latin America and the Caribbean, with an export of 2.9 million tones (48 million bags), is
expected to continue to be the leading exporting region, although there will be a decline in
the net-exports of 0.5 percent annually. By contrast, in Africa there will be a net export
increase at a rate of 1.6 percent annually, reaching 1.0 million tones (17 million bags) and
accounting for 18 percent share of global exports. In Asia, export availabilities are expected
to grow to 1.5 million tones (24 million bags) in 2010, accounting for 27 percent of world
coffee exports. Export availabilities from Oceania are estimated to increase by 7.3 percent,
reaching 150 000 tones (2.5 million bags), about 3.0 percent of global export availabilities
According to the ICO, market fundamentals favor a continuation of the current firmness in
prices. Total production in crop year 2008/09 was about 128 million bags for a total demand
of around 130 million bags. EAFCA predicts shortfall in production compared to demand
and this is expected to continue.
The low production of Arabica coffee, especially in Colombia contributes for Ethiopia to
gain a market advantage. The continuing good spirits of world consumption make it possible
to maintain relatively firm prices in upcoming months. The future growth in consumption,
which has been largely attributable to the development of emerging markets and increases in
the domestic consumption of coffee producing countries, could contribute to sustain coffee
5. Overall implication for the ECX market for the next six months
5.1. World wheat and maize market
According to Agriculture and Agri food Canada 2009/10 Market outlook report, in 2009-10,
world wheat production is forecast to decrease to 674 Mt. However, supply is expected to
increase by 4% because of higher carry-in stocks. World trade is forecast to decrease by
14% to 123 Mt due to lower demand from major importers, in northern Africa, the Middle
East and southern Asia because of higher domestic production, and lower demand for feed.
World utilization is expected to increase by 1% to 642 Mt as lower feed use is more than
offset by higher use for food. Food use is expected to increase because of increased
production in northern Africa, the Middle East and southern Asia, lower rice production in
India and growing demand. The availability of lower priced coarse grains is expected to
reduce feed use.
Exports from Argentina are expected to decrease to only 1.5 Mt from 8.6 Mt in 2008-09,
which will provide opportunities for other exporters to increase sales to South America and
Africa. Exports from EU-27 and Ukraine are also expected to drop sharply, by 5.4 Mt and
4.5 Mt, respectively. The most significant increase in exports is expected to be from
Australia, a 1 Mt increase. The largest decreases in imports are expected to be from Iran,
Morocco, and Turkey, at 3.3 Mt, 2.0 Mt and 1.9 Mt respectively.
Wheat prices have also moved up in the futures markets. Less than favorable growing
conditions in the United States and the sharp drop in production in Argentina continued to
provide support to futures in recent weeks. The weakening United States Dollar and
developments in the macro economy, including oil price hikes and cautious optimism about
the economic recovery, contributed to firmer wheat values.
International grain market development indicates that the average price of both wheat and
maize had shown a declining trend in first quarter but in second quarter it has showing an
5.2. The domestic production and price
When it comes to Ethiopia, production is mainly based on small plots of land, high transport
cost and as the product is for domestic market is not directly related to international prices.
Therefore the prices fluctuate based on the crop season. Owing to this situation it is difficult
to smoothly transact grain through a formal market. In fact there can be found enough
volume for instance for wheat and maize (basic consumption items) that can be traded at
The domestic price trend of wheat is higher than the international price till the first half of
the year 2009/10. Because there is high domestic demand for wheat and wheat is traded only
in the domestic market, local wheat price is not influenced by the international price. In fact,
the import of wheat by the government has exerted pressure on the wheat price. Though
contract is prepared for wheat to be traded through ECX, it has not been traded till the first
half of this fiscal year but there is a little supply of wheat in the second quarter. Because
wheat has demand regardless of the quality in the unorganized market and the producers and
agro processing industries are not fully aware of the modern market system (ECX), Based
on these factors there may be a little supply of wheat and maize to the ECX market for the
coming six months of this fiscal year.
5.3. Domestic sesame and pulse market
The existing sesame market has a long market chain to reach the end user. There is also a
long time established illegal trade. The government has studied the short fall of the existing
sesame market, and benefits of trading through the Ethiopia Commodity Exchange. To
implement this it has prepared a regulation which is expected to be promulgated soon.
Preconditions are already underway to enhance modern sesame trade. The necessary laws
and exchange rule are already in place. Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development
together with regional governments are establishing primary markets in major sesame
ECX is also identifying and registering Merchants that supply sesame to the market,
standardized stores are being made ready to accommodate the incoming product. Contracts
are already in use. Some Unions have started transacting through ECX. Others are being
registered to be a member. Therefore, there is a favorable situation to transact sesame
through ECX in the coming six month.
Pulses especially white haricot bean is expected to be traded through ECX in the near future
as it is included with the sesame regulation. For this fiscal year, its production and
marketable surplus is expected to fall by about 45% as a result there may be a little supply.
Awareness creation work should be done for producers and potential suppliers to enter to
5.4. World Coffee production and trade
On the basis of available information from ICO, production in crop year 2009/10 is
estimated at 123.6 million bags compared to 128.2 million bags in 2008/09.
In Brazil, where the harvest of the 2009/10 crop is complete, a fall in production of more
than 14% compared to 2008/09 has been reported. Falls in production are also envisaged in
a number of other countries, particularly in Africa (Côte d‟Ivoire, Tanzania and Uganda),
Asia (Papua New Guinea and Vietnam), Mexico and Central America (El Salvador and
Mexico), and South America (Ecuador and Peru). In the case of Colombia, although an
improvement had been expected during crop year 2009/10 compared to 2008/09, the size of
the crop for the first three months (October - December) is below the level for the same
period in 2008/09 (ICO, market report Jan. 2010).
Moreover, with factors such as a prolonged dry season and high levels of coffee berry borer
infestation, there appears to be little possibility of an increase in production. In these
circumstances, world coffee supply could be tight in 2010 since opening stocks are at low
levels and climatic factors may affect crop quality.
Market fundamentals continue to support firm prices, particularly in the case of Arabicas
and supplies of good quality coffee are experiencing difficulties as a result of adverse
weather conditions. In the short-term, coffee prices will continue to be influenced by
oscillations in the value of the United States dollar against the currencies of exporting
countries. Therefore the Ethiopian Commodity Exchange coffee trade will be enhanced,
where the Ethiopian organic coffee enjoys ample market opportunity at higher price.
5.5. Major findings
This year wheat production and marketable surplus is expected to be higher than the
The domestic maize production is expected to fall by 2.2% due to unfavorable
The domestic price of wheat and maize in the unorganized market for the current
fiscal year shows a declining patterns as compared to last year same period.
The supply of wheat in the unorganized market showed a declining trend during the
second quarter compared to the first quarter of the fiscal year. But the supply trend for
maize shows improvement during the second quarter.
Pulses production and marketable surplus is expected to be less than last year due to
unfavorable whether condition. The decline in last year's international price of pulses
has seems to lead farmers, especially rift valley farmers to switch from pulses to other
grains. This in turn has resulted in a decline in the area harvested and production of
pulses. Similarly production and marketable surplus of haricot bean is expected to fall
It has been identified from the cooperatives study that, the price offered by ECX
market is lower than the over the counter market this is one reason for the shortage of
grain supply on the exchange market.
Sesame production is expected to increase by 15% from its previous year. Similarly
its marketable surplus is expected to increase.
World coffee supplies are likely to remain tight in 2010 as a result of low production
and quality problems of coffee beans due to adverse weather conditions in some
major producing countries.
Global coffee supply is expected to be below demand in 2009/10. Inventories are
very low and the expectations of output for in Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia and Central
America are lower and also annual consumption rose at an average rate of 2.4 per
cent. As a result coffee is heading for a very firm market and there is a continuation
of the current firmness in prices.
The low production of Arabica coffee, especially in Colombia contributes for
Ethiopia to gain a huge market advantage. Moreover Ethiopian coffee producers and
traders would be beneficiary from the newly introduced specialty coffee and Direct
Specialty trade through ECX.
6. Conclusion and Recommendations
The global demand for wheat will continue to grow, but somewhat more slowly than in the
recent past. Most of the world‟s wheat crop will be used for human consumption, although
feed use of wheat will remain important in the EU and in parts of Eastern Europe. Asia and
Africa region are expected to remain the leading wheat consumers in the future. In these
countries and regions, increased demand for wheat is fueled by strong population growth.
Since the increases in wheat consumption in these countries will not be matched by
increases in domestic production, they are expected to be a major wheat importer.
Global demand for maize is projected to grow at roughly the same rate as in the recent past.
The composition of demand will continue to change, with feed use of yellow maize
increasing more rapidly than food use of white maize in both developed and developing
countries. As a result the market for yellow maize will expand faster relative to the market
for white maize. However, demand for white maize will remain strong in developing
countries and regions and white maize is likely to command a modest price premium in
In general, international trade in maize is expected to continue expanding for the foreseeable
future, fueled by strong demand for feed. But some developing countries, especially in
eastern and southern Africa, will make limited use of international markets because of the
high transportation costs involved in accessing them. Global trade in wheat is also expected
to expand. As in past years, most wheat will be traded from developed countries to
In Ethiopia, this year‟s grain production has fallen by 4.7% from its previous year. Wheat
and sesame productions are expected to be higher than its preceding year, in the contrary
maize and haricot bean production is expected to be less than the previous year. The
domestic price trend of wheat and maize in unorganized market exhibits a declining trend as
compared to last year same period. Flour and food processing industries are expanding from
time to time owing to the country‟s conducive investment climate. However, the available
domestic supply does not exceed the requirement of these industries and household
consumption needs of the public. Currently the country relies on international markets to
satisfy domestic wheat consumption requirements, especially those of urban consumers.
The country‟s commercial farmers are generally well served by profit-oriented private firms,
so they have a capacity to meet the ECX requirement; where as most non-commercial
farmers do not have that capacity. Commercial farmers can trade through ECX becoming a
member or through intermediary members. In the past few years, farmers are geared to
produce marketable products as part of the agriculture development policy and strategy.
This has brought attitude changes among rural farmers and some of them are becoming
milliners. These small scale farmers can trade at the ECX market through their
cooperatives/union directly being a member or through intermediary members.
The trading activity in the exchange market in the first half of 2009/10, there was a good
performance of coffee trade – a total of 3,551 thousand feresula of coffee was traded and
500qt of sesame, 50qt of white maize was traded. No trading activities were performed for
wheat and haricot bean. Therefore, ECX grain marketing activities has to be strengthening
by performing excessive awareness creation programs about ECX in the surplus producing
areas of the country and producers should be geared to increase their production and
productivity and follow a planned production system.
The global coffee demand and supply is expected to grow at a lower rate to 2010. The
projections indicate that several major changes would take place in the world coffee market
to 2010. First, most production growth would come from Asia and Africa, instead of Latin
America where most coffee had been produced. Second, the growth of consumption would
be faster in developing countries than in developed countries, in contrast to the trend over
the previous decade. Part of the growth in consumption in developing countries would come
from the increase within the producing countries, and partially because of this, international
trade would grow slower.
In Ethiopia only organic fertilizers and compost produced locally are used in the coffee
plantations. With modern techniques and trained personnel, production per hectare on the
plantations including smallholder, peasant farms expected to increase over the coming
years. Hence, Ethiopian producers are working not only to increase the volume of coffee the
country is producing, but also to produce some of the world's finest beans for which
Ethiopia is renowned. In this fiscal year the weather conditions that affect some major
coffee producers would bring market opportunity for smaller producers like Ethiopia. In
addition, various international initiatives are expected to take place as the exporters
underline the importance of promoting higher quality coffee with the aim of improving
prices through boosting consumption. From this Ethiopian coffee producers and traders
would be beneficiary as a producer of organic coffee furthermore the newly introduced
specialty coffee trade through ECX and the direct specialty trade will boost their market
Grain trade /maize and wheat/ in ECX market has to be strengthened by
participating government organizations like hospitals, universities which can
balance the demand and supply and as a result the ECX price can compete with
the over the counter markets.
Large commercial grain farms, unions and Agro processing industries such as
flour, food items, etc should also be considered as major market participants to
enhance grain trading through ECX.
Currently crop products worth more in unregulated market than the Ethiopia
Commodity Exchange market. Hence, to attract the transaction of crops through
the modern market, its price should reflect the unregulated market price.
The preparation that has been made for sesame to trade exclusively through ECX
has to be strengthened and all responsible bodies should exert their effort towards
achieving this goal.
Awareness should be created for sesame producers the price advantages of
supplying quality product and trading through Ethiopia Commodity Exchange.
Coffee farmers should be motivated and be aware of the advantages of premium
price on the supply of best quality coffee.
CSA, Agricultural Sample Survey Reports, from 2004/05 to 2009/10
CSA, Crop Utilization Report, 2007/08
CSA, Commercial Farmers Agricultural Sample Survey Report, 2008/09
MoARD, Export Performance Report
Market Surveillance six month report, 2009/10
Daniel o‟Brien and M. Woolverton, Grain Market Expectation for 2010.
Emiel Mehmet, The Public Ledget, "Colombia becomes huge swing factor in global coffee
market", December 2009.
FAO, Food Outlook, Global market analysis - Cereals, June 2009.
ICO, "ICO see coffee supply below demand", March 2009.
ICO, Various coffee Market Reports, 2009 & 2010.
Julian Gale, The Public Ledger, "late rains may hinder East African Coffee Flowering",
Ronald Trostle, Global agricultural supply and demand: Factors contributing to the recent
increase in food commodity markets, 2008,
The World Grain Council website
Annex 1: The 2008/09 /2001 E.C/ Private Peasant holdings and Large and medium Commercial farms cultivated area
& production and Commercial Farm Percentage Share to the Total
Cultivated Area in '000HA
Total Production in '000 QT
% Share of
% Share of
Annex 2: Cereals production and cultivated area
in „000 Quintals Growth Rate
Annex 3: Wheat Cultivated Area Production and Productivity Production and Productivity
Annex 4 : Maize Cultivated Area, Production and Productivity
in '000 QT Growth Rate
Annex 5: Pulses production and cultivated area
in „000 Quintals
Annex 6: Haricot bean Cultivated Area, Production and Productivity
in '000 QT Growth Rate
Annex 7: Oilseeds production and cultivated area
in „000 Quintals
Annex 8: Sesame Cultivated Area, Production and Productivity
'000 QT Growth Rate
Source: - CSA Annual Agricultural Sample Surveys from 2004/05 to 2009/10
Annex 9: Regional cultivated area and production of grains
Total Harvested Area in Hectare
Production in Quintal
% Change of 2009/10
% Change of 2009/10
Source: - CSA Annual Agricultural Sample Surveys from 2004/05 to 2009/10
CORPORATE INFORMATION CORPORATE OVERVIEW Property Portfolio Organisation and Reporting Structure Profile of Directors Profile of Management CORPORATE REVIEW Financial Highlights Message from Chairman and Managing Director Message from Chief Executive Officer Manager Report CORPORATE GOVERNANCE
ADVANCED TOPICS IN DIAGNOSTIC HINTS AND TREATMENT GUIDELINES FOR LYME AND OTHER TICK BORNE JOSEPH J. BURRASCANO JR., M.D. Fifteenth Edition Copyright, July, 2005 Welcome to the fifteenth edition of the "Guidelines". Since the last edition, enough new information has become available to justify this revision. New insights regarding co-infections, test refinements, and new treatment regimens are included. I once again extend my best wishes to the many patients and caregivers who deal with Lyme, and a sincere thank you to my colleagues whose endless contributions have helped me shape my approach to tick borne illnesses. I hope that my new edition proves to be useful. Happy reading! BACKGROUND INFORMATION In general, you can think of Lyme as having three categories: acute, early disseminated, and chronic. The sooner treatment is begun after the start of the infection, the higher the success rate. However, since it is easiest to cure early disease, this category of Lyme must be taken seriously. Undertreated infections will inevitably resurface, usually as chronic Lyme, with its tremendous problems of morbidity and difficulty with diagnosis and treatment. So, while the bulk of this document focuses of the more problematic chronic patient, strong emphasis is also placed on earlier stages of this illness. A very important issue is the definition of "Chronic Lyme Disease". Based on my clinical data and the latest published information, I offer the following definition. To be said to have chronic Lyme, these three criteria must be present: 1. Illness present for at least one year 2. Have persistent major neurologic involvement (such as encephalitis/encephalopathy, meningitis, etc.)