Ogni antibiotico è efficace in relazione a un determinato gruppo di microrganismi comprare keflex senza ricettain caso di infezioni oculari vengono scelte gocce ed unguenti.

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By: Frehiwot Mulugeta
Seyoum Tefera
Table of Contents
1. Introduction
As in most developing countries in Ethiopia agriculture is the dominant sector of the economy. It contributes the lion share of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and foreign currency earnings of the country from the sell of agricultural outputs abroad. According to the 2008/09 the Ministry of Finance and Economy Development (MoFED) GDP forecast the agricultural sector contributes 44.6%. Moreover, the sector creates employment opportunity to the majority of the country‟s population and at present nearly 85 percent of the country‟s population depends on agriculture to sustain their livelihood. Hence, as it has been for centuries in the past, still being the leading sector at present, in the short run it is believed to remain being the determinant sector to play a dominant role to bring about an overall sustainable economic growth to the country. However, the agricultural sector in Ethiopia remained at the vagaries of nature as its performance depends on the timeliness, amount and distribution of rainfall that makes the sector highly vulnerable to drought. To remove this problem the government took a form stand to modernize the agricultural sector. It has envisaged placing the country among middle income countries within two decades. To achieve this, the government has introduced agricultural led industrialization development strategy. The development of agriculture is set to be market oriented. This strategy is believed to increase production and productivity. In the past years the strategy has shown real changes, the economy is grown more than 10% a year, milliners and model farmers are emerging every year and the rural farmers living condition is changing. To support the developing and modernizing agriculture a modern marketing system is introduced. The market is operating on selected grains and This report assesses grain and coffee output for Ethiopian‟s 2001/2002 main season agricultural production emphasizing on the grains that are currently traded through Ethiopia Commodity Exchange (ECX) i.e. maize, wheat, sesame, haricot bean and coffee. The report addresses their production, supply, demand and price trends. It also further assesses world grain and coffee production, supply, demand and price trends. Finally report tries to show the likely implications of the world production and market with regard to commodity flow to the ECX market. 1.1 Objective of the study
The objectives of this study are:  To show the state of grain and coffee production, supply and price trends in  To evaluate the global production, marketable surplus and price trend on the above specified commodities,  To determine the likely implication with regard to commodity flow to the ECX 1.2 Methodology
Secondary data sources are used in this study. The data sources from annual reports, of Central Statistical Agency (CSA), Ministry of Agriculture and Rural development (MoARD), and National Bank of Ethiopia(NBE). Furthermore, different international agencies websites are used as sources of data. The method of data analysis encompasses descriptive statistics such as tabulations, percentage changes, means, graphs and pie charts. 1.3 Scope of the study
From the large varieties of grains, this study will focus on wheat, maize, haricot bean, sesame and coffee. The analysis is intended to cover:-  Both domestic and world grains and coffee production, supply, market and price  Grain and coffee spatial distribution,  Impact of world grain and coffee production and market on ECX. 2. Domestic grain production, supply and price trends
Some parts of Ethiopia are known for its double year; in „Meher‟ and „Belg‟ seasons. Meher is a long rainy season in which almost 80 to 90% of the private peasant farmers perform their crop production activities. According to the 2007/08 CSA report on area and production of belg season crops for private peasant holdings area cultivated under major crops/grains/ was only 8.86 % while its volume of production accounts for only 4.58 %, the remaining 95.52% was produced in the meher season. Cereals and pulses meher season production covers 95.4 % of the annual production while almost all (99.9%) of oil seeds come from meher season production. 2007/08 major crops production by season
Only 4.58% the annual production was produced during belg season which is insignificant and CSA conducts belg season agricultural survey only in 2007/08 due to this reason our report will only concentrate on meher season production. The 2008/09 CSA large and medium scale commercial farms sample survey report on area and production of crops indicates that a total of 342.11 thousand ha area was cultivated by Commercial farmers from which 5.2 million qt of grain was produced. The total area cultivated by private peasant holdings and commercial farmers during the specified period was 11,552.6 thousand ha and 176.4 million qt of grains was produced. Commercial farmers‟ contribution to the total area and production of grains accounts for only 3%. Of the total production 14.8% of oil seeds, 2.6% of cereals and 0.8% of pulses was produced by Commercial farmers See Annex 1. Trend in grain production and yield by crop type
The 2009/10 (2002 E.C) private peasants holding meher season crop production forecast survey indicate that a total land area of about 11,252 thousand hectares are covered with grain crops i.e. cereals, pulses and oilseeds from which about 177,114 thousand quintals of grains are expected to be produced from private peasant holdings. The total area cultivated for grain and production is forecasted to increase by 0.4% and 3.5% respectively from its From 2004/05 to 2009/10 the domestic grain production and cultivated area for grain shows an increasing trend with annual average growth rate of 8.3% and 2.8% respectively/see Table 2.1: Private peasants holding meher season Area cultivated for grain and its production Total Production Source: - Source: Computed based on CSA Annual Agricultural Sample Survey reports Out of the 2009/10 private holdings total cultivated cropland area and expected volume of production 9.18 million hectares are accounted for cereals (81.58%) from which about 154.37 million quintals (87.16%) are expected to be produced. Currently pulses are planted on about 1.33 million hectares of land (11.80%) from which about 16.42 million quintals (9.27%) are expected to be produced. Like wise oilseeds are grown on land area estimated at 745 thousand hectares (6.62%) from which about 6.33 million quintals (3.57%) are expected to be produced in 2009/10 cropping season. According to the 2009/10 (2002) crop production forecast survey report; even though the rain fall was not adequate both the estimated cropped land area and expected volume of production of grain has increased by 2.71% and 10.42% over the 2007/08 and by 0.37% and 3.47% over the 2008/09 post harvest estimates respectively. Except for pulses the expected crop productivity is anticipated to be better particularly for cereals when it is compared with its previous years i.e. 2007/08 and 2008/09 post harvest 2.1.1 Cereals
Cereals are the major food crops both in terms of the area they are planted to and volume of production. They are produced in larger volume compared with other crops because they are the principal staple crops. Cereals are grown in all regions with varying quantity. Domestic cereal production has an increasing trend, with annual average growth rate of 3.6%. In 2009/10 it was expected to increase by 6.1% from 2008/09 to 154,372 thousand quintals similarly the area harvested for cereal has increase by 4.5% see Annex 2. The productivity of cereals has also an increasing pattern from 13.13 in 2004/05 to 15.37 ha/qt in 2009/10. Cereals Production '000 in Quintals
Out of the total area harvested for cereals teff, maize, wheat and sorghum took up 22.9%, 16.0%, 15.5% and 12.9% of the grain crop area, respectively. As to production, teff, maize, wheat and sorghum made up 18.0%, 21.7%, 18.3% and 14.1% respectively. Cultivated Area and Production:
The 2009/10 meher season crop production forecast report shows that area harvested for wheat increased by 20.1% while its production is expected to increase by 27.8% from its previous year despite the unfavorable weather condition. During 2004/05 -2009/10 areas harvested for wheat and its production shows an increasing trend except for the year Productivity:
The national yield of wheat is estimated to increase to 18.58 qt/hr in 2009/10 by 6.4% from 2008/09. /See Annex 3/ Depending on the climate and soil conditions the potential yield varies from region to region which ranges from 15.03 to 21.63 qt/ha; the highest yield in SNNPR region. By increasing the production and productivity of wheat it is possible to save the foreign currency needed to import large quantity of wheat. Area Cultivated for wheat in '000 hr
Wheat Production in '000 qt
Cultivated area: -
According to 2009/10 crop production forecast report cultivated area for maize increased by 1.7% from the previous year; similarly it has an increasing pattern during the period 2004/05 to 2009/10 see Annex 4. Production and Productivity:
The 2009/10 maize production and productivity is expected to decrease by 2.2% and 3.8% respectively. /See Annex 4/This is due to unfavorable weather condition i.e. delay of rain fall /Source MOADR/ Area Cultivated for Maize in '000 hr
Maize Production in '000 qt
1,695 1,767 1,768 1,799 37,764 37,497 39,325 38,477 2.1.2 Pulses
Small scale farmers in Ethiopia grow various crops for own consumption and economic benefits. Pulses are among the crops produced in all the regions of the country after cereals. According to the Ethiopian Pulses, Oilseeds and Spices, Exporters Association, the country secured 466 million USD from the export of oilseeds and pulses in 2008/2009 fiscal year, it has shown an over 20% increase compared to the 2007/2008 fiscal year. Production and Productivity
 At national level, pulses production and productivity starts to show a positive trend in 2006/07 and continues till 2008/09.  In 2009/10 pulses production is expected to be 16,417 thousand qt, it decreases by 19.7% from 2008/09 and similarly the land cultivated for pulses has also decreased by 19.4%. /See Annex 5/  The reason for the decrease in production of pulse:
- Unfavorable weather condition, In 2008/09 the international price of pulse has fallen due to this reason the area cultivated for pulses has decreased especially around rift valleys. Pulses Production in Quintals
Haricot bean
 Area cultivated for haricot bean has an increasing pattern from 2006/07 to 2008/09 however it sharply goes down by 22.2% in the 2009/10 crop year from the previous  Similarly production and productivity of haricot bean is expected to decrease by - 45.3% and 29.7% respectively. This is mainly due to the unfavorable weather condition./See Annex 6/ Cultivated area for haricot bean
Haricot bean Production in '000 qt
in '000 hr
2.1.3 Oilseeds
Oilseeds are crops grown to flavor the food consumed at home and earn some cash for peasant holders in the country. The NBE 2007/08 Annual Report declares that out of the total export earning, oilseeds contribute about 15%. Oil seed production shows an increasing trend for the past three years (2006/07 - 2008/09) but the 2009/10 forecast shows that it is expected to decrease by 3.7% from its previous year. Similarly the harvested area decreased by 14.8%. However its productivity is expected to increase by 10.8%. /See Annex 7/ Oilseeds Production '000 in Quintals
 According to 2009/10 crop production forecast report, cultivated area had increased by 7.9% from the previous year;  Sesame production and productivity is expected to increase by 15.0% and 6.6% respectively from its previous year. /See Annex 8/  The lion share of the oilseed export earning came from sesame; in 2007/08 its share Cultivated Area for sesame in '000 hr
Sesame Production in '000 qt
Grain Production by Regions
The country‟s grain production in 2009/10 is forecasted to increase by 9.9% and 3.5 % as compared to 2007/08 and 2008/09 respectively. /See Annex 9/ Region wise, it shows an increasing trend in the Oromia, Amhara and SNNPR regions on the contrary Tigray, Somali and Benshangul Gumuze regions have declining pattern (excluding regions with a production estimate less than 500,000 qt). Regional Grain Production in '000 qt
2009/10 Forecast Cereal production is expected to increase by 6.5% from that of 2008/09. Cereals are found to be the most commonly grown crop across the regions. In 2009/10 crop year, Oromia region is the highest both in cropland area and expected volume of production of cereals followed by Amhara and SNNPR regions. In 2009/10 the expected volume of production has an increasing trend in all regions. The National level wheat production is expected to increase by 40.1% and 27.8% from 2007/08 and 2008/09 respectively. At regional level, all regions‟ production show an increasing pattern compared to last year same period. On the other hand, the current year total production of Maize is expected to decline by 2.16% from the preceding year. All regions production except Amhara follows a declining pattern. The country‟s major pulse producer regions are Amhara, Oromia, SNNPR and Tigray. The 2009/10 pulses production forecast have a decreasing pattern in all regions. Haricot bean total production is expected to decrease by 27.24% and 45.27% from 2007/08 and 2008/09 respectively. Similarly, all regions production is expected to fall. Amhara, Oromia and Tigray regions are the leading regions in producing oilseeds in the country. The 2009/10 expected volume of oil seed production increased only in Amhara region by 20.7%. The 2009/10 country level sesame production is expected to increase by 14.99%. Sesame production of all regions is expected to decrease from its previous year except for Amhara region. Trends in marketable surplus by crop types
The 2007/08 (2000E.C) CSA Annual Agricultural sample survey special report on crop utilization has been used to calculate the marketable surplus of crops in 2009/10. In Ethiopia nearly 65% of cereals produced were used for household consumption; nearly 17% and 14% were used for sale & seed respectively and the remaining 4% of cereals was used for other purposes like wage, animal feed, etc. When the crop utilization is considered by crop type, between 51 to 75% of crops in cereal group were used for own consumption and between 10 to 29% of the crops were used for sale. About 59% of pulses used for household consumption, 23% for sale, 14% for seed and the remaining 3% of pulses were used for other purposes. The pattern of oilseed utilization is different from that of cereals and pulses. According to the crop utilization report 31%, 54% and 12% of oilseeds were used for household consumption, sale and seed respectively. We can summarize that more of the oilseeds produced are used for sale. The basic assumptions made in order to forecast the 2009/10 production and marketable 1. The 2008/09 commercial farmers‟ production proportion to the total production remains the same. 2. The 2007/08 crop utilization ration also holds for 2009/10 fiscal year. Table 2.2: Private Peasant holdings and Commercial Farmers Production Forecast 2009/10 (in „000 qt) Private Peasant
Commercial farms
Commercial farms
2009/10 total
holdings 2009/10
share to the total
2009/10 production
production forecast
production forecast
Production
estimate
154,372.34
2.65% 4,086.99
158,459.33
3.59% 1,164.08
33,592.63
3.19% 1,228.47
39,705.56
16,416.68
0.83% 136.17
16,552.85
0.14% 10.38
7,510.45
1.64% 29.51
1,834.33
6,325.54
14.79% 935.67
7,261.21
32.60% 812.54
3,304.76
Source: Computed based on CSA Private Peasant holdings and Commercial farmers Agricultural Sample Survey Table 2.3: The 2009/10 Marketable Surplus of Major Crops Marketable Surplus
Crop Type
2009/10 Forecast
2008/09 Estimate
Source: Computed based on CSA Agricultural Sample Surveys As can be seen from table 2.3, in 2009/10 the supply of cereals is expected to increase by 6% to 24.7 million quintals from previous year. The supply of wheat is also expected to increase by 28% but the supply of maize is expected to fall by 2%. One of the likely reasons for the decrease in the supply of maize is the fall in its production and productivity and similarly the household consumption of grain is expected to increase slightly. Marketable surplus of pulses is expected to fall by 16% as a result of the decrease in its production (all crops under pulse category except horse bean production is expected to fall). Similarly haricot bean‟s surplus is expected to decrease by 45% due to the decline in production and productivity. Oilseed supply is expected to fall by 4%, this is because of the decrease in the production of all oilseed families (like nigerseed, linseed etc) other than sesame. The supply of sesame is expected to increase by 15%. 2.4 Trend in Grain flows to the Mesalemia Market
In 2008/09 the supply trend for maize generally shows an increasing pattern but that of wheat did not exhibits a consistent pattern. The average supply of wheat and maize to the Mesalemia market was 1,449 qt and 4,736 qt respectively /January 2008 to January 2010/ respectively. The supply rates of wheat are less volatile than that of maize. Supply of wheat keep decreasing from January 09 to May 09 and it increases in June 2009 and continue to decline till December 2009 and again increased to in January 2010. On the other hand maize supply to Mesalemia market does not follow a regular pattern /increasing and The supply of wheat showed a declining trend in second quarter as compared to first quarter of this fiscal year. The supply of wheat dropped from 1,550 quintals in July to 1,279 quintals in September, increasing afterward but the second quarter average supply decreased by 4.2% as compared to first quarter. Unlike wheat, the supply trend for maize crop reflects improvement for months and reached at peak to Birr 6,029 in December 2009. Hence the average supply in the second quarter increased by 8.8% as compared to first The supply trend for both crops in the first six months of this fiscal year shows an increasing trend compared to last year‟s same period where the average supply of Wheat and Maize increased by 4.4% and 22.9% respectively. Monthly Average Supply to Messalemia Market
Source: Market Surveillance Grain Price
2.5.1 National
The Domestic Market " Mesalmia" price trend of Wheat and Maize over the last twenty months were used to analyze the national domestic price of wheat and maize. Generally the price trend of both crops for this fiscal year (2009/10) exhibits a declining trend as compared to last year same period. Monthly Average Price of wheat and maize to Messalemia Market
700 600 500 400 300 200 100 Source: Market Surveillance As shown in the graph above average monthly price of wheat reached a peak of 642 birr/qt and minimum of 461 birr/qt. The average price is less volatile with coefficient of variation of 8. In the first quarter of 2008/09 the average monthly price of wheat reaches its peak price Birr 642 per qt.; the price shows a declining over the second and third quarters and again increasing trend in the fourth quarter of the year. In the first quarter of 2009/10 the average price is 589 birr/qt a 5% less than the preceding year. Likewise, in the second quarter the average price further goes down to 562 birr/qt; which is less by 5% from the previous quarter and 4% from last year‟s same period. As we can see from the above graph, the average monthly price of maize is more volatile, with coefficient of variation of 27. In first quarter of 2008/09 maize price reaches its maximum of 595 birr/qt. Then after the price continued to decline till the end of the year. The decline continued to the next year and reached 339 birr/qt was down by 43% in the first quarter of 2009/10 from last year‟s same period. It goes further down in the second quarter of 2009/10 and reached 301 birr/qt. This is a decline of 11% from the previous quarter and 24% from last year‟s same period. Table 2.4: Coefficient of variation Standard deviation Coefficient of variation The price trend of both crops in the first and second quarter of 2009/10 shows a declining trend as compared to last year same period (2008/09). 2.5.2 Regional levels
The retailer‟s price of wheat and maize was collected from 11 selected market places of the country. During July to October 2009 the average retailer price of wheat and maize has decreases in all selected market places the decline ranges from 1 to 43 % than its previous year same period. Table 2.5 indicates that the lowest price of Birr 389.00 was observed for wheat in Debremarkos and the highest of Birr 785.00 was recorded for Harrar during the first six months of current fiscal year. Similarly, during the same period of previous year, the highest and lowest prices (Birr 891 and Birr 643) were recorded at Kobo and Debremarkos markets respectively. The average wheat price trend for the first four months of 2008/09 was Birr 763, while the average price for this fiscal year was Birr 607 indicating a decline of 25.6 %. With regard to maize, the lowest price was recorded at Mota and Yergachefe, which was birr 351 per qt; while the highest price (Birr 525.00 per qt) was registered for Diredawa. Average price of maize during the first four months of the fiscal year was Birr 425 per qt. while the average price for the corresponding months of the previous year was Birr 635 per qt. This suggests that maize price dropped by 50% during the first half of this fiscal year as compared to the preceding year. Table 2.5: Average Retail Price of wheat and maize in selected areas of the country (Birr/qt) Price of Wheat
Price of Maize
2.6 Coffee Production and Supply in 2009/10
Coffee is the most important agricultural commodity in the world. Many countries, including Ethiopia, grow coffee, which is exported as the raw or roasted to the world. The agriculture-based Ethiopian economy is highly dependent on coffee arabica as it contributes more than 36 percent of the country's foreign exchange earnings (NBE 2007/08 Annual report). According to MoARD export statistics, in 2008/09 375.8 million USD was eared from the coffee export. This export earning falls by 28 percent than its preceding year. Table 2.6: Domestic Coffee Production (2004/05-2009/10) Cultivated Area
Total Production
Production in '000 Source: CSA Agricultural Sample Surveys and MoARD The data from 2004/05 to 2008/09 was taken from CSA annual agricultural sample survey reports and the 2009/10 coffee production was taken from MoARD unpublished document. The area covered by coffee and its production shows an increasing trend from 2005/06 to 2007/08 whereas it goes down in 2008/09 by 3.9% and 4.8 % respectively. In 2009/10 about 4.8 million quintals of coffee is expected to be produced, it is 84.7% higher than the previous year. This fiscal year coffee production forecast is higher than the past ten years output; the main reason for this achievement is the favorable weather condition specially rain distribution and the success on coffee preparation process. 2.7 Trading activity in the ECX market
In the last six months /from July 08, 2009 to January 8, 2010/ the performance of grain trading in the ECX market was presented as follows:  800 quintals of Humera sesame of value 1,355 thousand Birr were traded.  50 quintals of white maize with a total value of 16.7 thousand birr was traded.  Wheat and haricot bean has not been transacted in the ECX market. A total of 3,551 thousand feresula (603 thousand quintals) of all types of coffee were traded showing a daily average traded volume of 27.5 thousand feresula. Of the total volume stated above, unwashed coffee constituted 51%, while washed (commercial), specialty and local coffee accounted for 21.9%, 8.2% and 18.9% respectively. In value terms during the specified period a total of 1,828.5 million Birr was earner from coffee Table 2.7: Volume and value of coffee traded in the ECX market over the last six months Coffee type
Volume in feresula
Percentage share Value in Million Birr
Specialty(washed Q-grade) 3,551,358
Source: Market Surveillance The six months‟ average price of unwashed coffee was 523 birr per feresula. It exhibited a decline of 8.1% in the second quarter compared to the first quarter. The average price of washed coffee was Birr 546 per feresula also fall by 2.6% as compared to the first quarter All coffee types categorized under washed and unwashed coffee exhibited a decline in price in the second quarter compared to the first quarter. The primary reason for the decline in prices is that traders were left free for certain period to negotiate and set the new price level without putting price limits for the new crop of 2009, and accordingly buyers tried to reverse the increasing trends observed in the old crop season. /Source Market Surveillance /. The average price of specialty coffee in the period November 23, 2009 to January 08, 2010 was Birr 623 per feresula. It showed an increasing trend throughout the period for all specialty coffee types. In terms of local coffee, except Sidama, all other coffee types showed an increase in price in the second quarter of the year. 3. World Grain Supply and Demand
3.1. Supply and Demand
Supply-demand prospects differ across the various markets, as world wheat supply- demand prospects are less positive than those of feed grains and especially oilseeds. In addition to "traditional" supply-demand factors, grain markets will continue to be influenced by currency exchange rates, energy-petroleum prices and world economy in 2010, says O‟Brien. Supply-demand conditions for grains and oilseeds in 2010 are the result of grain market trends that have been in place since 1998/99. From 1998/99 through 2006/07 marketing years for wheat, corn and soybeans, world and U.S. grain supplies have either trended toward or have stayed at lower, tighter stocks-to-use levels while grain prices also remained at relatively low levels (compared to the higher prices achieved during the 2007-2009 period), he notes. The supply of grains in 2005/06 was 1606 million tons. It has increased to 1697 million tons in 2007/08. The corresponding consumption was 1619 million tons in 2005/06 and 1686 million tons in 2007/08. As shown in Table 3.1, a significant increase in wheat, maize and barley, mostly in North America and the CIS, lift estimated world grains production by 9 million tons, to 1,768 million in 2010, 25 million below last year‟s record. Projected total consumption is 1,744 million tons in 2010, 1.3 per cent more than last year. The International Grain Council forecasted the global industrial use of grain to be 257 million tons, in 2010, unchanged from last year, including 136 million for ethanol. World grain stocks at the end of 2009/10 are projected 24 million tons more than previous year, at 385 million. Compared with last season, wheat stocks are expected to rise but there will be a fall in the case of maize. World grains trade is forecast at 229 million, still below last year‟s record 248 million due to reduced wheat imports by Near East Asia and North Africa. Table 3.1: World production and Consumption (million tons) 2009/2010
estimate
projected
Year/year change Year/year change Year/year change Source: International Grain Council –Grain Market Report (Jan 21, 2010) According to the international grain council, World wheat harvest areas in 2010 are forecast at 221 million hectare 1% less than in 2009 similarly production is projected at 674 million tons, some 12 million less than in 2009 but the third largest on record. The main reason for the fall of wheat production is: some areas of CIS /Commonwealth of Independent States / have been exposed to frost damage; winter wheat plantings in the US were exceptionally low, at 15 million hectare, due to the late harvesting of maize and soybeans; some of Canada‟s farmers may switch from spring wheat to oilseeds or pulses and delayed planting in North Africa. Forecast global consumption is 642 million, only 3 million more than in 2008/09. Large purchases by Near East and Far East Asia raise forecast world wheat trade by 1 million tons, to 119 million, compared with the record 136 million in 2008/09 (Table 3.1). US wheat sales continue to make slow progress but Canada‟s are running ahead of last year. Export forecasts for the EU, Ukraine and Kazakhstan are also increased. Maize production forecast is 791 million, the same as in 2008. Forecast global maize consumption is 24 million more than in 2008/09. World stocks are down by 11million to total 137 million tons at the end of 2009/10. Overall, the anticipated decline in world cereal production is likely to be offset by a draw down from stocks carried-over from the current season, and as such, supply is projected to be sufficient to meet the expected demand. However, in the current economic environment, there is much uncertainty, especially with regard to its effects on demand. 3.2. Price Trends
Trade in cereals, including maize and wheat, is expected to continue to grow. Future trade growth will be associated with increasing production and consumption of food and feed caused by a global population that will get larger, richer, and more urbanized. The agricultural trade is also likely to get a boost from the policy side. The process by which current uncertainties in grain supply and demand eventually become market realities will drive world grain and oilseed market prices in calendar year 2010, says Kansas State University Grain Economist Dan O‟Brien. International markets are becoming increasingly segmented, with separate channels for different grades and qualities, so producers who have the capacity to target specialized niche markets are likely to enjoy a competitive advantage. Table 3.2: Major Grain Price ($/bushel) Source: Chicago Board of Trade Table 3.2 Shows that the price trend for both wheat and maize increased and reached peak in 2008. The price declined in 2009 and settled well over the 2005 price level. According to Daniel O‟Brien in previous year‟s world grain and oilseed markets appeared to be comfortable with lower but "just in time" levels of supplies to meet demand needs. Beginning in late 2006 to early 2007, a number of factors came together to cause grain prices to move dramatically higher. Wheat stocks in the world and the U.S declined to 30 year and 60 year lows, respectively, in the 2007/08 marketing year. Rapid U.S. ethanol expansion tightened U.S. corn supply-demand balances, leading to dramatic increases in U.S. corn acreage and production in 2007. After giving acres over to corn in 2007, U.S. soybean markets responded with higher prices and planted acres in 2008. Combined with record high world oil prices and sharp declines in the value of the U.S. dollar, these market trends all culminated with record high wheat, corn and soybean prices in early 2008. Wheat prices have been declining in the past few months of 2009, an indication that the world will see higher wheat production in 2010. Since peaking in March 2009, global wheat export prices have dipped by 25 per cent (IGC). Wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) have slumped more than 70 per cent since March 2009. Still, global grain trade is seen falling, as increases in wheat and barley shipments are being more than offset by falls in corn and sorghum (CBOT). In addition to these supply-demand factors, grain markets affected by unforeseen geopolitical and macroeconomic events in the coming year. If geopolitical conflict in the Middle East were to occur, world petroleum prices would likely be affected, which would in turn affect grain prices. Unanticipated changes in world financial markets with the risk of either deflation or inflation of currencies and commodity prices would impact grain market prices. Table 3.3: Wheat planting and harvesting season Top producers
Planting season
Harvesting season
Winter: - September - October Spring: - March - April Winter :- October and December Winter :- September - October Winter: - October - November Winter: - August - October Spring and durum:– May - June August - October Winter: - September - October July - September Winter: - May - July October - December Winter: - October Winter :- October - December Winter :- June - August October - December Source: Different varieties of wheat are grown in the top wheat producing countries: mainly winter wheat, spring wheat, and durum wheat. Both spring wheat and durum follow, generally, the same life cycle. Both are planted around the first of May, with planting running through the first of June. Both can be expected to begin heading around the first of July, with harvest beginning in mid-August and running through the middle of October. Winter wheat planting begins around September and completed by the end of December. Winter wheat harvest time varies from one to the other country. For France, Russia, Canada, Germany and China (spring) begin around the first of July and running through the first part of September (Table Ethiopia‟s wheat planting and harvesting season differ from others, but has relatively the same with Australia. In Australia, winter wheat planting begins around the first of May and runs through the end of July and Ethiopia‟s begun around June and runs through the end of August. Australia‟s and Ethiopia‟s wheat harvest usually beginning first of October and running through the end of December (Table C). As Ethiopia‟s harvesting season is different from major producers, it has a market advantage for selling wheat abroad. Internatonal price of Wheat and Maize
Price of Wheat 2009 Price of Maize 2009 Price of Wheat 2008 Price of Maize 2008 Source: The Public Ledger The above graph shows that, in the international grain market the average price of wheat had shown a declining trend during the first quarter. The last six months average price of wheat and maize has declined by 31% and 37% respectively from last year same period. Average wheat price was Birr 209 in September but showed a rising trend during the second quarter. In the same way, the average price of Maize increased in the second quarter compared to the first quarter. 3.3. Freight Trends
Freight transport adds no value but more cost to the freight it carries. They have direct influence on the cost of commodities and, as a result, the price of living. Freight price depends on the form of the cargo, the mode of transport (truck, ship, and aircraft), the weight of the cargo, and the distance to the delivery destination. Many shipping services, especially air carriers, use dimensional weight for calculating the price, which takes into account both weight and volume of the cargo. Ocean Freight Rates follow the strengths and weaknesses of the economies of the countries the carrier service. The rates fluctuate based on the market, the economy and the geographical location of the port. Carriers are charging premiums for space on their vessels and on the pier. The following are some of the fees and surcharges that might be in a quotation from a forwarder or customs broker or ocean carrier:  Currency Adjustment Factor,  Bunker Adjustment Factor,  Origin and Destination Terminal Handling Charges,  Peak Season Surcharge  Automated Manifest Security Surcharge  Congestion Surcharge,  Bill of Lading Issuance Fees,  Detention/Demurrage Fees, and  Others, as applicable. The International Grains Council‟s Grain Freight Index (GFI) had risen to over 6,000 points in early December 2009, compared to less than 3,000 a year earlier. Shipping heavy grains from the U.S. Gulf to the E.U. and Japan in early December 2009 cost $37 per tone and $68 per tone, respectively. A year earlier, the totals were $17 per tone and $25 per tone. So, in 2009, the shipping sector looked in far better shape than it did a year earlier with freight rates at least at profitable levels for most operators. For the U.S., the comparison of the spread between the Gulf and PNW (Pacific North West) as a barometer to guide on the direction that grain will flow, ten years ago shippers would have an advantage with the spread exceeded $10 per tone to load out of the PNW for shipments destined for Asia (Eriksen). However, in the current environment, when the full accounting of transportation is considered, including the inland transport costs to the PNW, the ocean freight spread that gives the PNW an advantage is closer to $25 per tone as the cost of moving corn and soybeans by rail have increased considerably over the past decade. This spike in Chinese demand for most bulk commodities was reflected in the smaller vessel sizes used for international grain shipments. The Baltic Exchange Panamax Index, which started 2009 at just 500 points, had reached nearly 4,500 in late November. The Supramax Index jumped from 400 to over 2,400, while the handy size index climbed from under 300 to 1,100 in the same period. Generally, the main factors that contribute to the growing needs of time sensitive freight  Globalization and international trade,  Trend towards outsourcing non-core activities including logistics,  Trend towards smaller more frequent shipment (time sensitive supply); just- intime inventory; and direct-to customer business,  Dynamic factors including the pace and risk of obsolescence; speed-to-market and consistent; satisfactory customer experiences and,  Information technology e.g. bar-coding; electronic data interchange (EDI); web based ordering and tracking capabilities; automatic data capture; routing management and inventory track-and-trace visibility etc. logistics include, Mayne (2002) and UPS (2004). Spot rates in the dry-cargo markets barely cover operating costs and make little or no contribution to debt service. Therefore, analysts say, 2010 will be a very challenging year for most shipping companies. If rates continue at their present levels, many owners will run out of cash, and as the banks do not provide finance without large injections of new equity, the companies will go bankrupt. What is transparently clear for shippers is that despite the rise in freight rates during 2009, there remain a number of clouds on the horizon for owners which could put downward pressure on the cost of moving goods by bulk carrier in 2010. On the demand side, evidence of a full-blown global economic resurgence was still patchy as 2010 approached and there was no guarantee that China‟s stimulus spending would continue to provide the bulk shipping market with ballast. A tightening of credit or a change in the government‟s industrial policy in the wake of December‟s "Copenhagen" meetings could strike a demand blow to the iron ore and coal export industry. The Dubai financial scare also gave warning that more economic surprises could still be in store. From these most forecasters are predicting vessel values and rates will fall considerably during 2010 and remain bearish in 2011. 3.4. Likely impact on the domestic market
In a world that is becoming more populated, wealthier, and more urbanized, and one in which economic activities are increasingly linked through commercial relationships, grain production and consumption generally depend on national and international markets. The role of markets vary from country to country depending on many factors, including the level of general economic development, the quantity and quality of transportation and communication infrastructure, the efficiency of marketing institutions, and the incentives created by agricultural as well as non-agricultural policies. Most grains are produced on small plots of land. The farming activity is labor intensive. The supply is mostly short of demand compared to the high population of the country. The existing commercial farms are also not satisfying flour and food item processing industries. Because of this the domestic market grain price is high compared to the international markets which are supplied by modern farm. The data from EGT, CBOT and Agra net, which are discussed above shows the domestic market price for the major grain- wheat and maize is higher than the international market price. 4. World Coffee Production, stock and Demand
The two main coffees species commercially cultivated are coffee „Arabica‟ and coffee 'Robusta'. Coffee arabica is considered more suitable for drinking than robusta coffee. Robusta tends to be bitter and have less flavor but better body than arabica. For these reasons, about three-quarters of coffee cultivated worldwide are coffee arabica. However, Coffee robusta is less susceptible to disease than coffee arabica and can be cultivated in environment where coffee arabica will not thrive. Robusta coffee also contains about 40–50 per cent more caffeine than arabica. For this reason, it is used as an inexpensive substitute for arabica in many commercial coffee blends. According to ICO in 2008/09 of the total coffee production 61% was Arabica coffee. Global coffee supply is expected to be some 6-8 million 60-kg bags below demand in 2009/10, due in part to falling output in key producers, International Coffee Organization chief Nestor Osorio. He added there seem to be a deficit; Inventories are very low and the expectations of output for in Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia and Central America are lower. As a result coffee is heading for a very firm market. Osorio also indicated that 2009/10 will be an off-year in Brazil's biennial production cycle and scarcity of quality washed arabicas in the world's number 3 producer- Colombia, due to the impact of heavy rains and a programme to renew coffee trees. He also indicated that the tightness of supply was particularly acute in Colombia where the authorities have implemented a coffee tree renewal programme aimed at raising production to 17 million bags in four or five years from around 11-11.5 million bags now. In the meantime, as there is a clear scarcity of quality washed arabicas from Colombia, there will no coffee to replace in the blends the coffee that Colombia and Central America cannot offer. It means a kind of a squeeze in the market because some contracts and some deliveries of coffee could not be Global Coffee Production and Consumption
Domestic consumption Source: ICO (production), Agra net (consumption, trade and stock) The above graph shows that coffee production fluctuates from year to year. Production increased by 22 percent from 2004/05 to 2008/09 but declined by 3.6 percent from 2008. According to ICO, in crop year 2009/10 coffee production is estimated at 123.6 million bags compared to 128.2 million bags in 2008/09. This estimate is preliminary since additional information, mainly from Colombia and Vietnam, is pending. The export and stocks declined by 11.5 per cent and 5.8 per cent from 2004/05 to 2008/09 respectively. Coffee production and export fluctuates with a general increasing trend for production and decline trend for export over the years considered. Where as domestic consumption shows an increasing and stocks a decline trend from 2004/05 to 2008/09. The ICO reported that from 2000 to 2008, annual world consumption rose at an average rate of 2.4 per cent. The result in 2008 was mainly due to the increase in domestic consumption in exporting countries, in particular, Brazil, Indonesia and Mexico. Consumption also increased in Germany, Italy and UK, but a decrease has been observed in some importing countries such as France, the Netherlands and the Russian Federation. Consumption continues to be buoyant and is likely to remain a dominant factor in maintaining firm prices. Since production is expected to be lower than consumption, stocks will have to continue to be drawn down from already low levels. Coffee supplies are likely to remain tight in 2010 as a result of low production and problems in the quality of coffee beans as a result of adverse weather conditions during harvesting. 4.1. Coffee Production by major producers
As a commodity, coffee - from Coffee Beans grown in over 70 countries - is second only to oil in dollar volume. Brazil remains by far the largest Coffee Beans producer. In 2009 Brazil contributed an output of 41% to the world total. Vietnam in recent years has rapidly been taking the second position with output of 14%. Colombia is a distant third 9%, Indonesia produced about 8%, Ethiopia contributed more than 5% & it takes the sixth position, and Mexico and India each contributed 4% to the world production (Table 4.1). Table 4.1: Top ten coffee producers (000 bags) 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 World production Share of top ten (%) Source: CBOT Note- amount is expressed in 60 kg bags. The world's largest coffee producing region is likely to continue to be Latin America. The world market is expected to be in its low production year of biennial production cycle, with output significantly reduced in the Brazilian coffee and the Vietnamese crop will also be down year-on-year. In addition to Brazil and Vietnam, Colombia - one of the largest arabica coffee producer, 2009/2010 production is expected to fall considerably. As E. Mehmet, put it coating Colombian coffee growers "the country could produce one of its smallest crop 35 years this season, with some expecting production to fall by nearly 30% from last year to no time more than 8 million bags in 2009". The unusual cold weather in Mexico and Central America during peak coffee harvesting season is expected to hamper quality and quantity of the output. As J. Gale, in the Public Ledger predicted coating producers, the overall drop in 2009/2010 coffee harvest due to aging trees and bad weather conditions could reach 33% to 3.45million 60kg bags. In 2008/09, Mexico produced 4.6 million bags. The bad weather is expected to affect El Salvador and Costa Rica coffee harvesting. East African Fine Coffees Association/ EAFCA/ expects coffee production to rise in Ethiopia, Burundi and Tanzania in 2009/2010 crop year but a fall in Kenya and Uganda. 4.2. Coffee Price Trend
The upward trend in coffee prices recorded in December 2009 continued during the first fortnight of 2010, with the monthly average of the ICO composite indicator price in January rising to 126.85 US cents per lb compared to 124.96 US cents per lb in December 2009, representing a slight increase of 1.5%. This is the highest monthly average since August 2008 and represents an increase of 17% in relation to January 2009. Table 4.2: ICO INDICATOR PRICES, ANNUAL AVERAGES: 1998 to 2009 Colombian Mild Arabicas
Other Mild Arabicas
Brazilian Natural Arabicas
Robustas
Annual Composite
weighted
weighted
weighted
weighted
averages
Source: International Coffee Organization (http://www.ico.org/coffee_prices.asp) Table 4.2 show that coffee price was decreased from the 1998 level, where it reached the minimum in 2001 for ICO composite, Arabica and Robusta. The price increased slightly for six years and jumped the 1998 level in 2008, where price reached a peak. The increase was particularly marked in the case of Colombian Milds, widening the differential with the average of the 2nd and 3rd positions on the New York futures market. During the last few months, the differential between prices of Arabicas and Robustas has widened significantly. However, prices fell slightly during the second half of January, partly as a result of movements in the value of the US dollar, which generally appreciated against
the currencies of exporting countries, particularly the Brazilian real. Coffee group indicator prices
Source: ICO report The graph shows daily indicator prices for the four groups of coffee since 2 January 2009. During the whole of calendar year 2009 Arabica prices were much firmer than those of Robustas, which found it difficult to sustain a level of more than 70 US cents per lb, widening the differential between the two types of coffee. Supplies of Arabicas from South and Central America are facing both climatic and structural difficulties, particularly with the recurrence of the coffee berry borer in Colombia. Prospects for a return of Colombian production to its normal level following a poor performance in 2008/09 are once more uncertain and the production in January was very low. The possibility of substitution by other origins seems equally limited. 4.3. Prospects for the next one year
Preliminary estimates for crop year 2009/2010 indicate that total production will be between 123 and 125 million bags. Production in Africa, Mexico and Central America will increase slightly. But production will fall in Brazil, Colombia and Central America during crop year In 2010, global coffee net-export is projected to reach 5.5 million tones (92 million bags). Latin America and the Caribbean, with an export of 2.9 million tones (48 million bags), is expected to continue to be the leading exporting region, although there will be a decline in the net-exports of 0.5 percent annually. By contrast, in Africa there will be a net export increase at a rate of 1.6 percent annually, reaching 1.0 million tones (17 million bags) and accounting for 18 percent share of global exports. In Asia, export availabilities are expected to grow to 1.5 million tones (24 million bags) in 2010, accounting for 27 percent of world coffee exports. Export availabilities from Oceania are estimated to increase by 7.3 percent, reaching 150 000 tones (2.5 million bags), about 3.0 percent of global export availabilities According to the ICO, market fundamentals favor a continuation of the current firmness in prices. Total production in crop year 2008/09 was about 128 million bags for a total demand of around 130 million bags. EAFCA predicts shortfall in production compared to demand and this is expected to continue. The low production of Arabica coffee, especially in Colombia contributes for Ethiopia to gain a market advantage. The continuing good spirits of world consumption make it possible to maintain relatively firm prices in upcoming months. The future growth in consumption, which has been largely attributable to the development of emerging markets and increases in the domestic consumption of coffee producing countries, could contribute to sustain coffee 5. Overall implication for the ECX market for the next six months
5.1. World wheat and maize market
According to Agriculture and Agri food Canada 2009/10 Market outlook report, in 2009-10, world wheat production is forecast to decrease to 674 Mt. However, supply is expected to increase by 4% because of higher carry-in stocks. World trade is forecast to decrease by 14% to 123 Mt due to lower demand from major importers, in northern Africa, the Middle East and southern Asia because of higher domestic production, and lower demand for feed. World utilization is expected to increase by 1% to 642 Mt as lower feed use is more than offset by higher use for food. Food use is expected to increase because of increased production in northern Africa, the Middle East and southern Asia, lower rice production in India and growing demand. The availability of lower priced coarse grains is expected to reduce feed use. Exports from Argentina are expected to decrease to only 1.5 Mt from 8.6 Mt in 2008-09, which will provide opportunities for other exporters to increase sales to South America and Africa. Exports from EU-27 and Ukraine are also expected to drop sharply, by 5.4 Mt and 4.5 Mt, respectively. The most significant increase in exports is expected to be from Australia, a 1 Mt increase. The largest decreases in imports are expected to be from Iran, Morocco, and Turkey, at 3.3 Mt, 2.0 Mt and 1.9 Mt respectively. Wheat prices have also moved up in the futures markets. Less than favorable growing conditions in the United States and the sharp drop in production in Argentina continued to provide support to futures in recent weeks. The weakening United States Dollar and developments in the macro economy, including oil price hikes and cautious optimism about the economic recovery, contributed to firmer wheat values. International grain market development indicates that the average price of both wheat and maize had shown a declining trend in first quarter but in second quarter it has showing an increasing trend. 5.2. The domestic production and price
When it comes to Ethiopia, production is mainly based on small plots of land, high transport cost and as the product is for domestic market is not directly related to international prices. Therefore the prices fluctuate based on the crop season. Owing to this situation it is difficult to smoothly transact grain through a formal market. In fact there can be found enough volume for instance for wheat and maize (basic consumption items) that can be traded at commodity exchange. The domestic price trend of wheat is higher than the international price till the first half of the year 2009/10. Because there is high domestic demand for wheat and wheat is traded only in the domestic market, local wheat price is not influenced by the international price. In fact, the import of wheat by the government has exerted pressure on the wheat price. Though contract is prepared for wheat to be traded through ECX, it has not been traded till the first half of this fiscal year but there is a little supply of wheat in the second quarter. Because wheat has demand regardless of the quality in the unorganized market and the producers and agro processing industries are not fully aware of the modern market system (ECX), Based on these factors there may be a little supply of wheat and maize to the ECX market for the coming six months of this fiscal year. 5.3. Domestic sesame and pulse market
The existing sesame market has a long market chain to reach the end user. There is also a long time established illegal trade. The government has studied the short fall of the existing sesame market, and benefits of trading through the Ethiopia Commodity Exchange. To implement this it has prepared a regulation which is expected to be promulgated soon. Preconditions are already underway to enhance modern sesame trade. The necessary laws and exchange rule are already in place. Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development together with regional governments are establishing primary markets in major sesame producing areas. ECX is also identifying and registering Merchants that supply sesame to the market, standardized stores are being made ready to accommodate the incoming product. Contracts are already in use. Some Unions have started transacting through ECX. Others are being registered to be a member. Therefore, there is a favorable situation to transact sesame through ECX in the coming six month. Pulses especially white haricot bean is expected to be traded through ECX in the near future as it is included with the sesame regulation. For this fiscal year, its production and marketable surplus is expected to fall by about 45% as a result there may be a little supply. Awareness creation work should be done for producers and potential suppliers to enter to 5.4. World Coffee production and trade
On the basis of available information from ICO, production in crop year 2009/10 is estimated at 123.6 million bags compared to 128.2 million bags in 2008/09. In Brazil, where the harvest of the 2009/10 crop is complete, a fall in production of more than 14% compared to 2008/09 has been reported. Falls in production are also envisaged in a number of other countries, particularly in Africa (Côte d‟Ivoire, Tanzania and Uganda), Asia (Papua New Guinea and Vietnam), Mexico and Central America (El Salvador and Mexico), and South America (Ecuador and Peru). In the case of Colombia, although an improvement had been expected during crop year 2009/10 compared to 2008/09, the size of the crop for the first three months (October - December) is below the level for the same period in 2008/09 (ICO, market report Jan. 2010). Moreover, with factors such as a prolonged dry season and high levels of coffee berry borer infestation, there appears to be little possibility of an increase in production. In these circumstances, world coffee supply could be tight in 2010 since opening stocks are at low levels and climatic factors may affect crop quality. Market fundamentals continue to support firm prices, particularly in the case of Arabicas and supplies of good quality coffee are experiencing difficulties as a result of adverse weather conditions. In the short-term, coffee prices will continue to be influenced by oscillations in the value of the United States dollar against the currencies of exporting countries. Therefore the Ethiopian Commodity Exchange coffee trade will be enhanced, where the Ethiopian organic coffee enjoys ample market opportunity at higher price. 5.5. Major findings
 This year wheat production and marketable surplus is expected to be higher than the  The domestic maize production is expected to fall by 2.2% due to unfavorable whether condition.  The domestic price of wheat and maize in the unorganized market for the current fiscal year shows a declining patterns as compared to last year same period.  The supply of wheat in the unorganized market showed a declining trend during the second quarter compared to the first quarter of the fiscal year. But the supply trend for maize shows improvement during the second quarter.  Pulses production and marketable surplus is expected to be less than last year due to unfavorable whether condition. The decline in last year's international price of pulses has seems to lead farmers, especially rift valley farmers to switch from pulses to other grains. This in turn has resulted in a decline in the area harvested and production of pulses. Similarly production and marketable surplus of haricot bean is expected to fall  It has been identified from the cooperatives study that, the price offered by ECX market is lower than the over the counter market this is one reason for the shortage of grain supply on the exchange market.  Sesame production is expected to increase by 15% from its previous year. Similarly its marketable surplus is expected to increase.  World coffee supplies are likely to remain tight in 2010 as a result of low production and quality problems of coffee beans due to adverse weather conditions in some major producing countries.  Global coffee supply is expected to be below demand in 2009/10. Inventories are very low and the expectations of output for in Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia and Central America are lower and also annual consumption rose at an average rate of 2.4 per cent. As a result coffee is heading for a very firm market and there is a continuation of the current firmness in prices.  The low production of Arabica coffee, especially in Colombia contributes for Ethiopia to gain a huge market advantage. Moreover Ethiopian coffee producers and traders would be beneficiary from the newly introduced specialty coffee and Direct Specialty trade through ECX. 6. Conclusion and Recommendations
6.1. Conclusion
The global demand for wheat will continue to grow, but somewhat more slowly than in the recent past. Most of the world‟s wheat crop will be used for human consumption, although feed use of wheat will remain important in the EU and in parts of Eastern Europe. Asia and Africa region are expected to remain the leading wheat consumers in the future. In these countries and regions, increased demand for wheat is fueled by strong population growth. Since the increases in wheat consumption in these countries will not be matched by increases in domestic production, they are expected to be a major wheat importer. Global demand for maize is projected to grow at roughly the same rate as in the recent past. The composition of demand will continue to change, with feed use of yellow maize increasing more rapidly than food use of white maize in both developed and developing countries. As a result the market for yellow maize will expand faster relative to the market for white maize. However, demand for white maize will remain strong in developing countries and regions and white maize is likely to command a modest price premium in In general, international trade in maize is expected to continue expanding for the foreseeable future, fueled by strong demand for feed. But some developing countries, especially in eastern and southern Africa, will make limited use of international markets because of the high transportation costs involved in accessing them. Global trade in wheat is also expected to expand. As in past years, most wheat will be traded from developed countries to developing countries. In Ethiopia, this year‟s grain production has fallen by 4.7% from its previous year. Wheat and sesame productions are expected to be higher than its preceding year, in the contrary maize and haricot bean production is expected to be less than the previous year. The domestic price trend of wheat and maize in unorganized market exhibits a declining trend as compared to last year same period. Flour and food processing industries are expanding from time to time owing to the country‟s conducive investment climate. However, the available domestic supply does not exceed the requirement of these industries and household consumption needs of the public. Currently the country relies on international markets to satisfy domestic wheat consumption requirements, especially those of urban consumers. The country‟s commercial farmers are generally well served by profit-oriented private firms, so they have a capacity to meet the ECX requirement; where as most non-commercial farmers do not have that capacity. Commercial farmers can trade through ECX becoming a member or through intermediary members. In the past few years, farmers are geared to produce marketable products as part of the agriculture development policy and strategy. This has brought attitude changes among rural farmers and some of them are becoming milliners. These small scale farmers can trade at the ECX market through their cooperatives/union directly being a member or through intermediary members. The trading activity in the exchange market in the first half of 2009/10, there was a good performance of coffee trade – a total of 3,551 thousand feresula of coffee was traded and 500qt of sesame, 50qt of white maize was traded. No trading activities were performed for wheat and haricot bean. Therefore, ECX grain marketing activities has to be strengthening by performing excessive awareness creation programs about ECX in the surplus producing areas of the country and producers should be geared to increase their production and productivity and follow a planned production system. The global coffee demand and supply is expected to grow at a lower rate to 2010. The projections indicate that several major changes would take place in the world coffee market to 2010. First, most production growth would come from Asia and Africa, instead of Latin America where most coffee had been produced. Second, the growth of consumption would be faster in developing countries than in developed countries, in contrast to the trend over the previous decade. Part of the growth in consumption in developing countries would come from the increase within the producing countries, and partially because of this, international trade would grow slower. In Ethiopia only organic fertilizers and compost produced locally are used in the coffee plantations. With modern techniques and trained personnel, production per hectare on the plantations including smallholder, peasant farms expected to increase over the coming years. Hence, Ethiopian producers are working not only to increase the volume of coffee the country is producing, but also to produce some of the world's finest beans for which Ethiopia is renowned. In this fiscal year the weather conditions that affect some major coffee producers would bring market opportunity for smaller producers like Ethiopia. In addition, various international initiatives are expected to take place as the exporters underline the importance of promoting higher quality coffee with the aim of improving prices through boosting consumption. From this Ethiopian coffee producers and traders would be beneficiary as a producer of organic coffee furthermore the newly introduced specialty coffee trade through ECX and the direct specialty trade will boost their market 6.2. Recommendations
 Grain trade /maize and wheat/ in ECX market has to be strengthened by participating government organizations like hospitals, universities which can balance the demand and supply and as a result the ECX price can compete with the over the counter markets.  Large commercial grain farms, unions and Agro processing industries such as flour, food items, etc should also be considered as major market participants to enhance grain trading through ECX.  Currently crop products worth more in unregulated market than the Ethiopia Commodity Exchange market. Hence, to attract the transaction of crops through the modern market, its price should reflect the unregulated market price.  The preparation that has been made for sesame to trade exclusively through ECX has to be strengthened and all responsible bodies should exert their effort towards achieving this goal.  Awareness should be created for sesame producers the price advantages of supplying quality product and trading through Ethiopia Commodity Exchange.  Coffee farmers should be motivated and be aware of the advantages of premium price on the supply of best quality coffee. References
CSA, Agricultural Sample Survey Reports, from 2004/05 to 2009/10 CSA, Crop Utilization Report, 2007/08 CSA, Commercial Farmers Agricultural Sample Survey Report, 2008/09 MoARD, Export Performance Report Market Surveillance six month report, 2009/10 Daniel o‟Brien and M. Woolverton, Grain Market Expectation for 2010. Emiel Mehmet, The Public Ledget, "Colombia becomes huge swing factor in global coffee market", December 2009. FAO, Food Outlook, Global market analysis - Cereals, June 2009. ICO, "ICO see coffee supply below demand", March 2009. ICO, Various coffee Market Reports, 2009 & 2010. Julian Gale, The Public Ledger, "late rains may hinder East African Coffee Flowering", Ronald Trostle, Global agricultural supply and demand: Factors contributing to the recent increase in food commodity markets, 2008, The World Grain Council website Annex 1: The 2008/09 /2001 E.C/ Private Peasant holdings and Large and medium Commercial farms cultivated area
& production and Commercial Farm Percentage Share to the Total
Cultivated Area in '000HA
Total Production in '000 QT
% Share of
% Share of
Large and
Commercial
Large and
Commercial
Crop Type
holdings
Commercial
holdings
Commercial
185.45 8,955.57
3,942.28 148,906.34
8,770.12
144,964.06
1,297 40,622.17 13.04 1,598.27
164.32 19,810.61
1,585.23
19,646.30
143.62 998.77
1,138.29 7,695.33
6,557.04
Annex 2: Cereals production and cultivated area
Cultivated Area
Total Production
in „000 Quintals Growth Rate Average 8,478
3.6% 130,309.22
Annex 3: Wheat Cultivated Area Production and Productivity Production and Productivity
Cultivated Area
Total Production
Annex 4 : Maize Cultivated Area, Production and Productivity
Cultivated Area
Total Production
in '000 QT Growth Rate Annex 5: Pulses production and cultivated area
Total Production in „000 Quintals -19.4% 16,416.68 -0.8% 15,980.81
Annex 6: Haricot bean Cultivated Area, Production and Productivity
Cultivated Area
Total Production
in '000 QT Growth Rate Annex 7: Oilseeds production and cultivated area
in „000 Quintals -2.7% 5,692.13

Annex 8: Sesame Cultivated Area, Production and Productivity
Cultivated Area
Total Production
'000 QT Growth Rate Source: - CSA Annual Agricultural Sample Surveys from 2004/05 to 2009/10 Annex 9: Regional cultivated area and production of grains
Total Harvested Area in Hectare
Production in Quintal
% Change of 2009/10 % Change of 2009/10 Forecast of
Forecast of
11,018,229
3,976,193
59,555,916
5,154,868
86,529,752
1,643,458
14,735,338
2,700,543
Country level
10,954,722
11,210,500
11,252,050
161,166,573
171,167,405
177,114,565
Source: - CSA Annual Agricultural Sample Surveys from 2004/05 to 2009/10

Source: http://www.ecea.gov.et/doc/2009-10%20PRODUCTION,%20SUPPLY%20AND%20FUTURE%20PROSPECTS.pdf

dividendmagic.com.my

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managing lyme disease

ADVANCED TOPICS IN DIAGNOSTIC HINTS AND TREATMENT GUIDELINES FOR LYME AND OTHER TICK BORNE JOSEPH J. BURRASCANO JR., M.D. Fifteenth Edition Copyright, July, 2005 Welcome to the fifteenth edition of the "Guidelines". Since the last edition, enough new information has become available to justify this revision. New insights regarding co-infections, test refinements, and new treatment regimens are included. I once again extend my best wishes to the many patients and caregivers who deal with Lyme, and a sincere thank you to my colleagues whose endless contributions have helped me shape my approach to tick borne illnesses. I hope that my new edition proves to be useful. Happy reading! BACKGROUND INFORMATION In general, you can think of Lyme as having three categories: acute, early disseminated, and chronic. The sooner treatment is begun after the start of the infection, the higher the success rate. However, since it is easiest to cure early disease, this category of Lyme must be taken seriously. Undertreated infections will inevitably resurface, usually as chronic Lyme, with its tremendous problems of morbidity and difficulty with diagnosis and treatment. So, while the bulk of this document focuses of the more problematic chronic patient, strong emphasis is also placed on earlier stages of this illness. A very important issue is the definition of "Chronic Lyme Disease". Based on my clinical data and the latest published information, I offer the following definition. To be said to have chronic Lyme, these three criteria must be present: 1. Illness present for at least one year 2. Have persistent major neurologic involvement (such as encephalitis/encephalopathy, meningitis, etc.)